I’ve Caught Phils Phever: The Phillies Are Going To Beat The St. Louis Cardinals

The Phillies broke their 11 year playoff drought and are finally back in the postseason. Heading into their Wild Card series matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals, there are enough narratives to get the attention of Stephen A. Smith.

 

 

Okay, maybe not.

 

Even still, the narratives in this series are uncanny. On the Cardinals side, it’s the last ride for the iconic trio of Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright. Three legends in their last hurrah. And who could possibly forget about the “St. Louis Postseason Magic,” I’ve heard about at a nauseating rate since the playoff matchups were decided?

 

Pardon my French, but f*ck those narratives, and f*ck that team. On the Phillies side, the narratives are just too juicy and the stars are aligning just too perfectly for me to care about made up magic and the juiced baseballs pitchers were feeding to Pujols down the stretch (yeah, I said it).

 

When the Phillies last made the postseason on the backs of an 102-win campaign spearheaded by Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, Ryann Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and others, they were taken out by this exact trio of Cardinals 11 years ago. In that instance, the Phillies were the favorites against an overlooked Cardinals team that snuck in on a wild card berth. The roles are kind of reversed for this series.

 

Remember that infamous pitcher’s duel in game five, where Chris Carpenter outdueled Halladay (that Ibanez fly ball should have gone out if not for the damn wind) in the last playoff game played at Citizens Bank Park? October 7, 2011 was the date of that game, a day a lot of us have either chosen to forget or let fuel you for a hope at another shot. For the latter, you’re finally getting your shot, against the same team, with the same effective, but much older trio. On Friday, October 7, 2022, 11 years to the day.

 

None of the current Phillies or anyone in the front office have anything to do with that 2011 team, and they may not have the same vengeance that some of us fans do. But I’ll be damned if I’m not rooting like hell for the Phils to beat this team, because I need revenge for Ryan Howard’s achilles, damnit.

 

 

Phillies Pitching vs. Struggling Cardinals Offense

 

When it comes to pitching matchups in baseball, people love to look at the starter for each team and say its so-and-so vs. so-and-so. I think that’s kind of a tired way to look at it, considering the pitchers are pitching against the opposing team’s hitters, not the other guy on the mound. Personal baseball viewpoints aside, the Phillies not only have the matchup in the old school viewpoint of  pitching matchups, but the advantage against the Cardinals offense.

 

When you look at the Cardinals offensively, their lineup is top heavy with star power and starts to drop off outside of that. Paul Goldschmidt is likely the MVP of the National League. Nolan Arenado had another superb season at the dish while playing spectacular defense yet again (mark my words though, this guy complains as much as ANYONE in the sport. If this series goes how I think it will, you’ll want to stab him through your television by about the fourth inning on Saturday night). Despite great seasons from both guys, they’ve also hit a prolonged slump recently, and in a sport that rides momentum as much as baseball does, that could spell bad news for St. Louis.

 

 

Tommy Edman is their do-it-all contact/speed utility middle infielder that literally every Cardinals team has had since the dawn of time. 10 bucks says A-Rod oozes over his “natural talent” and his ability to “just play the game the right way” in the first inning on Friday afternoon. I’m convinced that Brendan Donovan, the second baseman and likely leadoff hitter, is a long-haired clone of Edman. Whatever A-Rod says about Edman, it’s a near lock he’ll say the same about Donovan. Truth be told, I’m not terrified of either one of them.

 

And then, there’s the “ageless wonder” in Albert Pujols. The 42-year-old had a whopping five home runs the last time the Phillies saw him on July 11. He went on to hit 19 homers the rest of the way to get to the illustrious 700 home run mark for his career. Very cool, yes. They don’t say chicks dig the long ball for nothing. Pujols has not only been the best hitter for the Cardinals the last month, but he’s been one of the best in baseball.

 

Forgive me for raising an eyebrow at these marks, but I can’t ignore a fishy stank when I smell one, especially with the track record of this sport. Hopefully the regular baseballs are back in use for the postseason, and Pujols’ production comes back down to earth. He’s also much better against left-handed pitching than right-handers at this point in his career. Advantage, Phillies.

 

As for the Phillies pitching, a one-two tandem of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola for the first two games of a playoff series is one of the best in the sport. Both have been superb all year long, and both have been great recently. Nola took a perfect game 20 outs deep against one of the best lineups in the sport in the playoff clincher on Monday. Wheeler has been lights out in his last three starts of the season since coming off the injured list.

 

If the Phillies are going to win this series, both of them are going to have to pitch effectively deep into the game. Quite frankly, outside of Jose Alvarado, Zach Eflin, and like, maybe Bailey Falter who could be used out of the bullpen in this series, I don’t trust anyone else in the ‘pen. Nola has shown to be a bit of a jekyll and hyde when it comes to the fourth and fifth innings. In Houston on Monday, he was untouchable. In Chicago last week, he fell apart.

 

As for Wheeler, he tends to be steady through the game. You’ll know by the second inning whether he has his lights out stuff or not. The most encouraging point about Wheeler is that he DOMINATED the Cardinals in his two starts against them this season. In 14 innings, Wheeler didn’t allow a single run, and the Phils won both games.

 

 

Against a right-handed heavy lineup like St. Louis, I expect Wheeler to deal. If the Phils want any shot at winning this series, they have to win Wheeler’s start in game one. I think they will.

 

Cardinals Questionable Pitching vs. Phils Deep Lineup

 

On paper, the Phillies have one of the most potent lineups in the National League. Unfortunately for them, games aren’t played on paper. Lately, those games haven’t been all that impressive for the Phils offense. Outside of last weekend’s series against a true embarrassment to the sport in the Washington Nationals, the Phillies have struggled mightily the last month of the season.

 

There’s nothing that terrifies this team more than a runner in scoring position. They’re allergic to an extra-base hit of any kind. God forbid they hit a home run with a runner on base, and the sky might start falling. All those glaring weaknesses aside, the one thing the Phils have been able to do this season is beat up on mediocre to below average pitching.

 

In game one, the Cardinals are handing the ball to 33-year-old Jose Quintana, who’s been past his prime for four years now. That being said, he had a superb, turn-the-clock-back season to the tune of a 2.93 earned run average in 32 starts. Make no mistake about it, he’s had a great season, and is probably the Cardinals best candidate for a game one start. Quintana’s only issue is that he made it through the sixth inning just nine times of his 32 starts. He’s not a guy that’s going to pitch deep into games.

 

(Good thing there’s nine players in a lineup, not two, Brenden.)

 

So, if the Phillies get on him early, we could see St. Louis dip into their bullpen earlier than they’d like. While the Cardinals do have a great bullpen that has had success against the Phillies this season, having to use a lot of their arms early in game one could affect them the rest of the series. Advantage, Phillies.

 

In game two, the Phils are slated to face Miles Mikolas, a 34-year-old right-hander who was an all-star this season. That being said, he hasn’t been the same pitcher in the second half of the season as the one who earned that all-star berth in the first half. Much like Quintana, Mikolas is a good pitcher who’s had a year way above their expectations, but he’s not someone who should strike fear into the hearts of the Phillies lineup. In two starts against the Phils this year, he pitched 12.2 innings and gave up three runs, taking a win and a loss. Unlike Quintana, Mikolas will go deeper into games.

 

Another thing that will be different this time around as opposed to the meetings in early July is that the Phillies will have their full lineup at their disposal. In those games in July, the Phillies were still trotting out Didi Gregorius, Odubel Herrera, and Nick Castellanos in the three hole while they were without Bryce Harper and Jean Segura.

 

Now, the Phillies lineup is deeper and healthy. Kyle Schwarber has been heating up, as has Rhys Hoskins. Brandon Marsh has been playing some of the best baseball of his career in a Phillies uniform. J.T. Realmuto has been one of the best all-around players in the sport since Harper went down in June.

 

 

Speaking of Harper, he has been a rare rider on the struggle bus since coming back from his broken thumb in late August. I’d love to be worried about him heading into this series, but this guy matches the intensity of the moment as well as anyone else in the sport. The guy loves playing in the postseason. He was brought here for series like this. He’ll play up to the moment. Sorry, haters.

 

The Phillies Are Winning This Series

 

Unlike any other sports postseason, baseball is the most predicated on whatever team is hottest, not necessarily the best team. Just last season, the Braves had one of the worst records in the playoff field. They went on to win the World Series because they were playing the best heading into the postseason.

 

The Phillies, unlike the Braves, have not been playing well as they ride into October. That being said, they’re going up against a team that really hasn’t had anything to play for since like…mid-August? Once it was clear the Brewers were in fact frauds, the Cardinals coasted to a division title and were locked into the three seed because of how well the Dodgers, Mets, and Braves were playing.

 

So, in a matchup where one team has been on autopilot for essentially the last two months of the season and the other has been fighting to the very end just to get in the dance, historically, the matchup favors the latter. Couple that mantra with the fact that the Phils have the better starting pitching, a deeper lineup, have beaten this team before (they won the season series 4-3), and that they don’t give a $#*% about your made up midwestern magic, and I’m way too confident about the Phillies winning this series.

 

We’re getting revenge for that series in 2011. The Cardinals trio ended the Phillies run of dominance. Now, 11 years later, the Phillies have a chance to send that trio into retirement earlier than they want.

 

 

No one outside of the Delaware Valley expects the Phillies to win this series. Everyone is counting us out, but that’s exactly the way we want it. I’ll see you guys at section 419 in the Bank for game three of the NLDS.

 

 

(Quick thank you to everyone who watched, liked, shared, or even glanced at this video. 50-something-thousand views absolutely floored me. This is the best fanbase in sports, and I couldn’t be more proud to be apart of it. I love you all. Let’s go win a damn playoff series.)

By Matt Szczypiorski | October 6, 2022
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