The Phils Are Hot, The Schedule Gets Easier, The Fun Continues…Right?

Right now, I feel exactly like Patrick Star in that scene from Spongebob where he returns home to his rock and doesn’t know any of the people in his house. When it comes to the Phillies of the past week, I don’t know who any of these people are.

 

 

The offense is scoring runs at an unreal rate, and getting contributions from quite literally everybody not named Nick Castellanos (he gets a pass though because he brings great locker room vibes and is admittedly so much cooler than me). The starting rotation has been absolutely shoving, and Aaron Nola might just be an All-Star. And, in the biggest turn of events, the bullpen has actually been excellent since Joe Girardi was kicked to the curb, except for when Corey Knebel tried to kill me on Tuesday night.

 

After a sweep of a slumping Angels team that employs two of the best baseball players in the history of humanity, and a sweep of the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, the schedule for the Phils will only get easier over the next two weeks.

 

However, if you’ve watched this team, or any Philadelphia team for that matter, you know that doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing regardless of the circumstances. We know how the Phils are rolling right now, and we know seemingly every stat that has come out about how good they’ve been.

 

So, let’s take a look at who they’re next few opponents will be, how they’ve been playing, who to watch out for, and the amount of concern I have for a potential letdown spot for the Phils.

 

June 10-12: Home vs. Diamondbacks (3 games)

 

The Phils ride the wave of their seven game winning streak into a home weekend series against an Arizona Diamondbacks team that isn’t as bad as people may expect. Record wise, the D-backs have the same amount of wins as the Phillies, but are three games below .500.

 

With that being said, Arizona is coming into this series slumping a bit, despite emerging victorious (shoutout Tori Vega) in their last two games. This weekend will be the final series of a ten-game, east coast road trip for the D-backs. Advantage, Phillies. During this road trip, the D-backs have a record of 3-4 against the Pirates and Reds, two of the worst teams in the sport. Advantage, Phillies.

 

Despite that, the Diamondbacks will start this series by throwing their two best pitchers, Zac Gallen and Madison Bumgarner. Gallen, who will start on Friday night, has been one of the best pitchers in the National League to this point. Amongst starters, Gallen has the sixth best earned run average in the NL, and has been one of the best in the majors when it comes to avoiding the sweet spot of a guy’s bat. He should be an early lock to represent the D-backs in the All-Star Game.

 

On Saturday, the Phils will face Madison Bumgarner, who is having a resurgent season after a dreadful 2021. However, his 3.64 earned run average to this point doesn’t tell the full story. When it comes to the advanced analytics, his earned run average being as low as it is might be a miracle.

 

Hitters have a hard hit percentage of 46% against him and he is one of the worst pitchers in the league in terms of getting guys to swing and miss. The velocity on his pitches is one of the slowest in the majors and he’s not exactly avoiding any sweet spots on any bats. His most recent starts back up those metrics, too, as he is just 1-4 with a 5.20 ERA in his last seven starts. Expect the Phils to get after him on Saturday.

 

At the plate, the D-backs have some decent hitters you probably haven’t heard a lot about. First baseman Christian Walker is tied with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber for the second most ding-dongs in the league with 15. That being said, I’m not sure if we’ll see him at all this series after he was hit in the head with a pitch on Thursday afternoon.

 

 

Second baseman Ketel Marte is likely the most recognizable name for Arizona, as he was an all-star in 2019. Marte enters this series with a .272 batting average and 21 doubles, which is second most in the league behind our lord and savior Bryce Harper.

 

Overall, the Phillies are much better than this squad, especially at this moment. They should at the very least take two of three against this squad, if not sweep to extend the win streak to ten.

 

June 13-15: Home vs. Marlins (3 games)

 

Well, well, well, if it isn’t the Phillies kryptonite. Wouldn’t ya know it, with the way the schedule is shaking out, it appears as though the Marlins will be able to throw their three best arms against the Phillies!

 

Anyone who has had the pleasure of watching the Phillies for the last few years or so knows that the Marlins have been an absolute thorn in the Phillies’ side since they got rid of their neon orange uniforms. That’s right, the likes of Miguel Rojas, Jon Berti, Jesus Sanchez, and more have been tearing the Phils apart.

 

Earlier this season, the Phils were humiliated by the Fish in a 4-game set in Miami. In the three games the Marlins won, they outscored the Phils 22-7.

 

Heading into this series, the Phillies offense will have found an identity that they were searching for back in April in Miami. That being said, they’ll likely be facing a trio of young, promising arms that have dominated the Phils in the past.

 

Sandy Alcantara, who could be getting the ball on Monday night, is coming off of a nine-inning shutout performance against the Nationals. This season, Alcantara has the third-lowest ERA in the majors (1.61), the seventh most strikeouts in the league (77), and one of the lowest expected batting average against (.203). If the Phils have the unfortunate pleasure of facing him, it could be a tough game offensively.

 

 

As of now, one of the other pitchers they could potentially face on Wednesday afternoon is Pablo Lopez. Like Alcantara, Lopez finds himself in the top ten in ERA (2.18) and batting average against (.196), while also being one of the best in the league at making batters chase pitches out of the zone and swing-and-miss.

 

The Phillies offense has turned a corner, yes. But, they’ve also seemed to struggle mightily against elite level starters this season. On the flip side, while the Marlins do have a below average offense, don’t be surprised if their bats suddenly come to life in Citizens Bank Park.

 

While I do still expect the Phillies to find a way to win this series by taking two of three from Miami, don’t be the least bit surprised if the Marlins come into Philly and look like the best team in baseball on their way to a series win.

 

June 16-19: Away vs. Nationals (5 games)

 

Ah yes, the traditional 5-game set. On paper, it may look like the schedule makers are absolutely boning the Phillies by having them play a 5-game series without an off day prior. However, it was only supposed to be a 4-game series, but a fifth game was added when the first week of the season was originally cancelled by Rob Manfred (more like Manfraud AMIRIGHTGUYS).

 

In all seriousness, the pure amount of baseball to be played in this series may seem daunting for the Phils, but it really shouldn’t be too horrible. Why is that, you ask? Well, if there was any team in the league I’d want to play a million games against, it would be these Washington Nationals.

 

This team is truly horrid. Outside of Juan Soto, who isn’t even having a good season, this lineup is an absolute joke. Josh Bell is a decent hitter, but he isn’t anything to lose any sleep over. While the lineup is atrocious, the pitching staff may be even worse.

 

Patrick Corbin has been one of the most tormented pitchers in the sport this season. Rookie Josiah Gray has been throwing glorified batting practice on the mound. Stephen Strasburg is back, but with his injury history, he could just as easily miss this entire series with another injury.

 

All of that, combined with the fact that the Phillies have traditionally hit really well at Nationals Park, led by former National Bryce Harper, means I don’t expect this series to be much of a sweat. It’s for that exact reason that I expect this series to tell us a whole lot about this team and whether they’re truly contenders or if they’re the same pretenders they’ve been for four plus years now.

 

If they want to be contenders, they have to win three games in this series at the very least. Realistically, they should win four of five or even take all five. This Nats team is that bad.

 

As it stands right now, the Phillies are a game below .500 and 2.5 games back of that final playoff spot. If the Phils are serious about making a postseason push this year, they need to be over .500 and within striking distance, or in total control of a playoff spot by the end of this 11-game stretch. See ya at 7:05.

By Matt Szczypiorski | June 10, 2022
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