Viva Las Vegas: Harper, Stott Are The Future, But Is The Future Now?

When the Phillies signed Bryce Harper to a mega 13-year, $330 million contract in March of 2019, they expected him to step up in the clutch moments like he did on Sunday afternoon. When the Phillies drafted Bryson Stott, they will say that they eventually expected the same thing from Stott that they did from Harper. Let’s be real, though. No one expected this.

 

 

When the Phils took Stott with their first round pick in the 2019 draft, they had to have realized the connection between Stott and Harper. Their relationship goes deeper than the fact that both hail from Las Vegas, Nevada. In fact, Stott and Harper’s families have had a lengthy relationship, going back before Stott was even drafted.

 

After Sunday’s dramatic win, Harper said it was, “Pretty cool,” to see Stott’s walk-off blast. Harper even said that Stott is, “Part of that inner circle I call friends.” Harper, who’s typically more reserved when it comes to his personal life, has been pretty open about his relationship with Stott. Harper and Stott have been roommates at Spring Training the last few seasons, and have trained together in their hometown of Las Vegas in the offseason.

 

 

Now, though, Phillies fans are starting to see the close relationship pay dividends on the diamond. Harper, the reigning MVP, has been one of the hottest and most feared hitters on the planet since about July of 2021. Stott, on the other hand, had gotten off to a mighty slow start to his rookie season.

 

That slow start even led to a brief demotion to AAA. Even when Stott was brought back up to the majors, he was used sparingly because of some unbeknownst grudge held by former Joe Girardi against young players. Now with Girardi gone, interim manager Rob Thomson has been letting the youngsters like Stott get more opportunities. To say it’s paid off through three games would be an understatement.

 

It’s no question that when Harper was brought to Philly he was brought here with the intention of being the franchise guy for the foreseeable future. When Stott was drafted, he was drafted with the intention of eventually being part of a dynamic duo alongside Harper. These two will be the future of the Phils. But, that future might be now.

 

Crazy To Say, But Is Harper’s 2022 Better Than Last Year?

 

Crazy to say, yes, but not at all outlandish. If you think back to this point a year ago, Harper was on the struggle bus (at least by his standards). In May of 2021, Harper hit .211 while recording just 12 hits and missing some time with an injury. On June 10 of last season, Harper’s batting average dipped to .261, a point it would never reach the rest of the year, and he had just eight home runs.

 

Now, as of June 7 of this season, Harper’s batting average is .309 to go along with 13 ding dongs and 40 RBI, all while maintaining an OPS+ of 180 (league average is 100). For reference, Harper didn’t reach 40 RBI’s a season ago until August 4 (more of an indictment of the rest of the lineup than him, but still insane). He also didn’t reach 13 homers until June 30 of last year, but that was just his 58th game of the year due to injury, about 10 games behind his 13 homer mark this season.

 

Obviously, Harper would finish the 2021 season on an other-wordly tear, as he quite literally shouldered the offensive load for the entire team while he attempted to drag that embarrassment of a roster to the postseason. Back on the topic of the present, though, Harper could be on pace to win his second straight MVP if he continues to hit the way he is.

 

 

These stats take the cake for the sake of my argument. Bryce Harper has always hit the ball hard and he’s always been a player who can get some loft on the baseball, that’s just the nature of his violent swing. Even still, a few of those stats really jump out at me in terms of proving he’s even better this year.

 

First, and most importantly, his strikeout percentage has not only gone down, it has gone down by a whole 2%. Not to go all baseball analytic nerdy pants here, but that’s significant in my eyes. Couple that with the fact that when he’s hitting the ball, he’s hitting it hard and off the ground, which is the main reason he leads the majors in extra base hits right now. He’s creating even more opportunities for himself to get on base, drive in runs, and score runs himself.

 

One thing that pessimists may point out as a detriment to Harper’s back-to-back MVP campaign is that his walk percentage is down. Like, way down. His walk percentage is almost exactly half of what it was last year (to be fair, his walk percentage a year ago was 16.7%, placing him in the top 1% of the league).

 

To those pessimists, though, I raise a question. Is Harper’s walk rate really an indictment on himself, or is it because pitcher’s are more willing to throw Harper something he can offer at because of Nick Castellanos hitting behind him? I understand Castellanos is in a slump at the plate right now, but he’s far more formidable than any jokester the Phils have stuck in the cleanup spot behind Harper throughout his Phillies career (*glares at Rhys Hoskins*).

 

I would definitely tend to side on the latter end of that question. Especially because Harper’s strikeout rate is down along with his whiff rate, Harper putting the ball in play more is obviously a good thing for the Phils.

 

The only things working against Harper’s case for a second straight MVP would be his team’s underperformance, as well as other star players also having fantastic seasons. Mookie Betts, Manny Machado, and Paul Goldschmidt are all having outstanding seasons. Unfortunately for them, they don’t fit my Phillies-centric narrative, nor do they have a moment as cool as this.

 

 

Harper for MVP, cowards.

 

Is Sunday A Sign Of Things To Come For Stott?

 

I’m not going to sit here and say I saw Bryson Stott’s early season struggles coming, especially after a great spring training. On the flip side, though, I’m also not going to act surprised when a rookie struggles in their first two months in the big leagues.

 

The jump from High A to AA to AAA is noticeable, but not significant, which is part of the reason Stott had so much success across all three levels in 2021. However, the jump from AAA to the majors is a significant difference. The worst pitchers at the major league level are the aces of AAA staffs. There’s a reason that even the truly special hitters like Mike Trout, Harper, and Juan Soto, amongst others all face some struggles when they first get to the majors. It’s a major (no pun intended) adjustment period.

 

So, instead of diving into Stott’s utterly atrocious .159 overall batting average, .250 slugging percentage, or his 28% strikeout rate, let’s look at what he’s done recently. Looking into Stott’s recent performances rather than the big picture is important because he’s still finding himself at the plate, but also because he’s actually started to see regular playing time now that Girardi’s out the door. Harper has seemed to really notice the difference too.

 

 

 

Tell us how you really feel, Bryce. Jokes and passive aggressiveness aside, Harper’s right. With young players especially, taking them in and out of the lineup or pinch-hitting for them in big situations like Girardi would do with Stott and the other youngsters can really mess with a player’s psyche.

 

Now, look at what Stott has done with getting consistent at-bats while also being allowed to swing the twig in a big situation. Even going back to before Girardi was fired, Stott is hitting .286 with three extra base hits and six RBI while striking out just four times in his last seven games. It’s a small sample size, sure, but it could be all Stott needs to start feeling comfortable in the batter’s box.

 

Oh, and the walk off tater certainly helps with confidence too. Plus, Stott’s been flashing some high quality leather over at shortstop, which has been missing for the last few years. I still think he projects as a second baseman long-term, because in all honesty he lacks the arm strength to play shortstop at the major league level. With that being said, if he keeps making plays like this I’ll take that back.

 

 

Do I expect Stott to continue to rake the way he was this past weekend? No, not this year. If anything, though, his performance against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim from Orange County that are actually 40 minutes from LA proves what he can be. I don’t expect him to become all of what he’s supposed to be right away, and neither should anyone.

 

All I’m saying is if he continues to see consistent playing time, whether that be at shortstop or second base, he’ll definitely be better than his .159 batting average. The future is now, old man.

 

 

By Matt Szczypiorski | June 7, 2022
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,