Will the Phillies Finally Sustain Any Sort of Momentum?

Philadelphia sports are the real life embodiment of Michael Corleone from The Godfather: Part III, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” The Eagles have resembled that quote pretty much every year since 2017, the Sixers have been that way since they decided to start trying to win basketball games, and the Phillies…well, they might just be the prototypical personification of that quote from the great Al Pacino.

 

 

Unlike the Sixers and Eagles of the last five or so years, the Phillies have been the model of mediocrity. Say what you want about the teams that play across the street, at least they’ve been teams good enough to make the postseason.

 

History Says…

 

The Phils, on the other hand, have hovered around .500 since they started to garner any sort of expectations in 2018. Every year since then, the fans have clamored for ownership and the front office to go out and get the pieces to make this Phillies team a formidable threat, and maybe even bring back a Red October.

 

Much to the fan’s delight, whatever oddball that was running the Phillies front office at the time obliged to their requests, even though it might not have always felt like it. To their credit, they’ve spent the past four offseasons putting together a roster worthy of an appearance in the postseason. In just those four years, the Phillies have added Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Didi Gregorius, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Gibson, and most recently, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos.

 

However, much to the fan’s chagrin, the players haven’t held up their end of the bargain. It’s been the same song and dance every year since the Bryce Harper era began in 2019. The offense will be inconsistent throughout the year, the starting rotation will be solid but nothing special with Aaron Nola giving up an untimely homer, and the bullpen will be an unmitigated, poorly managed disaster.

 

All throughout the season, the team will rattle off a few wins, gain the attention and hope of their fans, crush them with a slew of uninspiring losses, then start the cycle all over again. And again. And again.

 

One of the main reasons for their inconsistencies over that time has been their inability to hit with runners in scoring position. Despite having offenses that ranked in the top half of the league in nearly every offensive category between 2019-2021, the Phils were literally incapable of driving home the ducks on the pond.

 

In 2019, the Phillies tied for the major league lead in runners left in scoring position per game (3.75). In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the Phillies again found themselves at the top of the league in this category, with the third most runners left stranded in scoring position per game (3.73). In 2021, the Phillies improved to 11th most runners stranded in scoring position (3.40), but obviously the word “improved” is used extremely lightly.

 

The 2022 Phillies

 

This season, with the aforementioned additions of Castellanos and Schwarber, this team was supposed to hit. They had such high expectations for the offense that the team’s slogan on social media has been, “Smash the Bell,” instead of “Ring the Bell,” like in years prior.

 

Despite what their below .500 record indicates, the Phillies have actually been a well above average offensive team this year. They rank in the top 10 in hits, doubles, triples, homers, stolen bases, and batting average. On the other hand, they have the sixth most strikeouts in the league coupled with an on base percentage that ranks 17th in the majors.

 

 

First things first, the fact that this team has the fifth highest batting average in the majors, yet ranks SEVENTEENTH in on base percentage is beyond perplexing, and a major concern. This, to me, shows that the Phillies aren’t great at stringing together baserunners, and, in turn, scoring runs. Yes, they have technically been better with runners in scoring position, as they are now 18th in runners left in scoring position.

 

With that being said, this past week might be the beginning of a “turning of the tide,” back to the way things were from 2019-2021. With the absence of Bryce Harper in four of the six games this week, the Phillies scored a grand total of four runs in those four games, including two shutouts. Even with Harper back in the lineup, the Phils offense went ice cold after the fourth inning on Saturday night, and needed a miracle to muster up three runs in the final two innings of Sunday’s contest.

 

With a lineup that includes three all-stars from a year ago, plus Rhys Hoskins and Jean Segura, who have been hot of late, I don’t care that Harper missed those four games. A lineup with that much talent shouldn’t be getting shut out twice in one series at home.

 

I haven’t even gotten to the pitching staff yet! Currently, the Phillies have allowed the 11th most runs in the league, ninth highest opponents batting average, and the 11th highest walks and hits per inning (WHIP). And wouldn’t ya know it, the bullpen is one of the main contributors to those piss poor numbers.

 

Who could have possibly imagined that the additions of a cooked Brad Hand, a guy who would be better-suited throwing batting practice in Jeurys Familia, and an inconsistent closer in Corey Knebel would backfire? Only every Phillies fan on the planet.

 

The Phils currently have the eighth highest bullpen ERA in the majors along with the third highest WHIP. These stats are up there with the likes of Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Colorado. Those four teams have a combined record of 61-99.

 

So About That Momentum…

 

After Sunday’s dramatic victory over the Dodgers, I’d love to sit here and tell you all that I believe the hot streak is coming. I’d love to sit here and tell you that the Phillies will magically become a consistent offense with a reliable pitching staff. Come on guys, let’s be rational about this, shall we?

 

I’m not going to pretend that yesterday’s win was anything other than lucky. Sure, take the wins in any way that you can get ’em, but c’mon now. Am I supposed to believe that this team’s got a hot streak in them because Max Muncy didn’t field a ground ball? Am I just supposed to forget the absolute ineptitude they showed this past week after a supposed “season-changing, momentum-swinging,” series win just last weekend against the Dodgers?

 

Plus, the schedule isn’t exactly easy over the next two weeks. Starting Monday night, they have four games in Atlanta against the defending World Series champs followed by three games in Queens against the division leading Mets who they’ve played approximately 112 times this year and had little success against.

 

 

Then, they return home with three games against the Giants, who won the most games in the majors a year ago, and then a three game set against a much improved Angels team that employs two of the five best players in the sport.

 

If there was any time to get hot, now would be the time. Unfortunately, though, you know what this team is, and you know how this goes. I know how much you want them to be different because they got some shiny new toys in the offseason.

 

Alas, inconsistency and mediocrity is just what the Phillies are. Try and try as they might to break the mold, it’s in their DNA at this point. As the now famous saying goes by the late Dennis Green, “They are who we thought they were,” and they will continue to be this way until proven otherwise.

 

I’ll see ya tonight at 7:20 for first pitch.

 

 

 

By Matt Szczypiorski | May 23, 2022
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