Exorcising Demons: How the Birds Can Upset Brady and the Bucs

For many Philadelphia sports fans, the Eagles loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2002 NFC Championship game ranks #1 in most fan’s hearts as the Eagles game that hurt the most.

 

The Eagles were supposed to win that game. It was supposed to be the final swan song for the Vet, and the beginning of a dynasty lead by a young quarterback and a relatively new, hot shot head coach. Instead, the final memory of nearly 40 years of Eagles football at the Vet is Ronde Barber running toward the Eagles end zone as if he were the only player on the field.

 

Now, 19 years later, the Eagles have a chance to exact some revenge for that fateful day. Nick Sirianni’s squad enters this game as heavy underdogs against a team lead by possibly the greatest athlete in the history of humanity, Tom Brady.

 

On paper, this Eagles team has no business competing with a 13-win Bucs squad coming off of a Super Bowl victory 11 months ago. On paper, the Bucs have an overwhelming presence at the line of scrimmage, both offensively and defensively. On paper, the Eagles aren’t even supposed to be here.

 

Luckily for the Eagles, they don’t play football games on paper.

 

Eagles Defense vs. Bucs Offense

 

For those of you that have been following my writing for a while, you know that I usually start with the Eagles offense. However, in this instance, it’s necessary to start with the Eagles defense.

 

Why? Basically, because if Jonathan Gannon’s defense doesn’t stop Tom Brady, then it really doesn’t matter what the Eagles offense does. Brady has the ability to outscore just about any team in the league in a shootout if he finds his groove. Unfortunately for the Birds, Gannon’s past performances against good quarterbacks, including Brady himself, shows that scenario is more likely than not.

 

Gannon’s style of defense is the definition of bend, don’t break. Over the past ten weeks, that defense has worked, in part because of who the opposing quarterback was. Where his defense has suffered mightily is against quarterbacks who are good enough to not only take what Gannon gives them, but also be able to capitalize on the lack of aggression in Gannon’s defensive style.

 

 

In order to win this game, the Eagles defense will need to do things against Brady that they haven’t shown on film all season. In 22 seasons of Brady’s illustrious career, really the only thing that has slowed him down has been defenses that are able to create pressure with their front four, Peyton Manning’s little brother, and a certain Eagles quarterback with a (allegedly) rather large phallus.

 

 

Jokes aside, getting pressure with your front four was something the Giants and Eagles were each able to do in their triumphs over Brady in the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for this Eagles team, getting pressure on the quarterback with their front four is something they are horrendous in doing at best, and downright unbearable, damn near allergic to at worst. Don’t expect that to change, as the Bucs have one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in the league.

 

The best way to make up for that would obviously be to send more rushers, better known as blitzing. Once again, unfortunately for the Eagles, Gannon has sent the second fewest blitzes in the league this season.

 

Like I said before, the Eagles are going to have to do something so drastically abnormal for them on defense to even have a chance in this game.

 

If there’s one thing I know about football coaches, it’s that they are the most open-minded, willing to change, not-at-all-stubborn type of people on the planet! (That comment was littered with sarcasm.)

 

Another thing I’d like to see the Eagles do is play up at the line of scrimmage on the Bucs wide receivers. That extra half-second of fighting through a defensive back just to get off the line of scrimmage may not seem like a lot. Yet, to a quarterback like Brady who wants to get the ball out of his hands as quick as possible, it makes a huge difference. Again, shockingly, this is something the Eagles have not done all year.

 

Something the Eagles should do on Sunday, and likely will do, is disguise coverages. This is a strategy that is 100% imperative against any elite quarterback, but especially against Tom Brady. There is not a single defense that Brady has never seen in the NFL. Therefore, the best way to keep him on his toes is to change what you’re doing on basically every single play. Gannon, for all his faults, should at least know this.

 

Outside of Brady, the Bucs have three obvious playmakers that the Eagles should gameplan against.

 

First and foremost, pro bowl cornerback Darius Slay should follow Mike Evans everywhere he goes. It’s as simple as that. If Evans can beat their best defensive player, the Eagles can live with that. If Evans is beating Steven Nelson, well, we all kind of expect that.

 

Second, the Eagles need to find some sort of solution to covering Rob Gronkowski. To be frank, I don’t know if the Eagles have anyone on the roster who can cover Gronk well enough to shut him down. My best solution would be Avonte Maddox just for his coverage skills, but even he isn’t a great matchup because of his lack of size.

 

Third is running back Leonard Fournette. “Playoff Lenny,” as some call him, has missed the last three games due to a hamstring injury. There aren’t many worse injuries to have as a running back then a hamstring injury, because no matter how much you rehab it, it can be a persistent, nagging injury. The Eagles have a top ten rush defense, so they match up with Fournette and the Bucs rushing attack well, but Tampa’s offensive line is very, very good.

 

The great equalizer in this game is going to be the weather. The forecast is calling for heavy rains in the morning and into the first half of the game, along with strong wind gusts of 20-30 mph. If that forecast turns out to be correct, then that will obviously play into the hands of the Eagles defense. Although, Brady played postseason games in Massachusetts for 20 years, so he’s used to inclement weather.

 

 

There is a painfully obvious road map to success here for Gannon’s defense on Sunday. Whether the Eagles have the players to do it, or if Gannon chooses to implement any of it, will remain to be seen. One thing’s for certain: if Gannon has the same game plan he’s had all season, the Eagles are toast.

 

Eagles Offense vs. Bucs Defense

 

Offensively, the game plan for Nick Sirianni shouldn’t be all that different from what got them here: running the football.

 

All week long, all you’ve heard is how good the Bucs rush defense is. I’m not going to dispute that, it is very good…but not as good as people are making it seem. Yes, Tampa has allowed the third fewest rushing yards in the league this season. However, I don’t believe that stat is the end all be all, because I think another stat shows more context.

 

While Tampa has the third fewest total rush yards allowed, they actually rank in the middle of the pack (tied for 13th) in terms of rush yards allowed per attempt (4.3). The Bucs share that average with the Bengals and three non-playoff teams: the Broncos, Falcons, and…wait for it…Jaguars.

 

This notion that the Eagles won’t be able to run the ball on the Bucs is foolish. The Eagles gashed the Saints in their matchup in mid-November, and the Saints allowed the fewest yards per attempt this season (3.7). They had success in both games against Washington, who ranks 9th in that same category (4.1).

 

In a league that is so centered around the saying, “what have you done for me lately,” it is worth noting that the Bucs have allowed 4.5, 5.6, and 4.2 yards per carry in their last three games. Their opponents in those games: the Panthers (20th in rush yards per game), the Jets (27th in rush yards per game), and the Panthers again. The Eagles lead the league in rushing yards per game.

 

That being said, the most important defender for the Eagles to neutralize in this game is defensive tackle Vita Vea. He is widely regarded as the best defensive tackle in the league not named Aaron Donald, and his fancy new contract extension proves it. However, if any team has the offensive line capable of neutralizing him, it’s a Jason Kelce-led offensive line. Also, the stat below is really telling.

 

 

The Eagles have the speed to get to the outside, especially with Miles Sanders being a full-go for Sunday. Further, the element that Jalen Hurts provides in the run game cannot be overstated. He will need to make a difference with his legs on Sunday.

 

With that being said, it is even more imperative that Hurts is just as effective, if not more so, with his right arm in this game. Tampa’s secondary has been injured the whole season, and even when they’ve been healthy, they’ve been suspect to giving up big plays.

 

I think that big play opportunities will be there in the passing game for the Birds. Whether it be Dallas Goedert, Devonta Smith, or even Quez Watkins, there will be a deep shot to be had in this game. The play actually being made will be predicated on Hurts’ ability to throw the ball deep and throw it accurately. If he can do that, the Eagles will have a much better chance of winning this game.

 

 

Speaking of Devonta Smith, he needs to be targeted at least eight times in this game if the Birds want to win. In playoff games, you have to get your best players involved. Smith is by far the most dynamic weapon the Eagles have in the passing game. He needs to have an opportunity to leave his mark, and that will be determined by Sirianni and Hurts’ throwing ability.

 

This is a game where the Eagles offense has to put up at least 27 points to even be in the game, and they will likely need to score more than that to win it. With Tom Brady on the other side, coupled with the fact that I have zero confidence in a defense called by Jonathan Gannon, I’m expecting the Bucs to put up a good amount of points.

 

The Eagles cannot afford to start slow in the first quarter like they’re done seemingly all season long. If they do that on Sunday, this puppy could be wrapped up by halftime. If they get some momentum early, we could have ourselves a ball game.

 

Important to note: as much as the weather is a disadvantage to the Bucs, it plays exactly into what the Eagles want to do on offense.

 

My Prediction

 

I’ve really gone back and forth on this game. Prior to week 18, I thought the Bucs were one of the best matchups for the Birds because of how many players they were missing. Then in the beginning of this week, I remembered that I don’t trust Gannon against good quarterbacks, and that Tom Brady is really good.

 

Now, though, as I’ve written out the keys to success, I can see the Eagles pulling off the massive upset. With the weather the way it’s supposed to be, the anticipation of a ton of Eagles fans being at the game, and the deep dives I’ve taken into stats for this game, the avenue is certainly there for an unlikely victory.

 

I think this game is going to be a lot closer than national media members believe. With that being said, we have to remember who the Eagles are going against: Tom Brady. At the end of the day, I just don’t believe that Gannon is going to do enough to throw Brady off of his game. Bucs win, 33-25. The Eagles are in it, but they just don’t have enough to compete with a roster built to win a Super Bowl.

 

If the Eagles lose a close one or if they lose by 30, we, as fans, have to take the result with a grain of salt. This team was never supposed to be here. The fact that they are even playing a game this week with a rookie head coach, a young coaching staff, a young quarterback, and an incomplete roster is enough of an accomplishment.

 

With the draft capital the Eagles will have in April and the exuberant amount of cap space set to be freed up with Carson Wentz finally coming off the books, there are so many reasons to believe in the future of this team. So, no matter how badly the Eagles lose, I encourage you all to keep some perspective on this team and be appreciative that they’re here.

 

That being said, if the Eagles win this game…go ballistic. Drop all the Eagles memes you have into Bucs fan’s comment sections on twitter. Be over-the-top fanatical when you call in on 94.1 or 97.5. Text all of your non-Eagles fan friends who told you that the Birds had no shot in this game. You will have earned it.

 

 

Broadcast Information

 

Time: 1:00 P.M. EDT

TV: FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver, and Tom Rinaldi)

Radio: 94.1 WIP

Stream: NFL Game Pass

By Matt Szczypiorski | January 15, 2022
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