Call Me Crazy, But…The 5-7 Eagles Can Still Make The Playoffs

Let’s start this off with a quote from the Philly Sports Bible that is completely real and definitely not made up.

 

“As thy fans of Philadelphia sports garner confidence and expectation in a beloved team, thou must be reminded of what it means to be humble. The only way to do that is with a soul crushing, unexpected defeat. But not just any defeat. Nay, the team must lose in a way that is such a gut punch that thy fans will be affected by said defeat for days, weeks, even years to come.” – Jawn 13:7

 

I will not be doing my typical weekly game preview this week. The main reason is that the New York Jets are a horrendous football team. They rank dead last in total defense and in the bottom eight in total offense. Zach Wilson, as it currently stands, is a terrible quarterback. Last week, he threw what I imagine is the closest thing to an interception version of the butt fumble.

 

 

Even still, the Eagles should win this game. I’m almost positive that now that I’ve said this about the Jets and how they’re so horrendous that they don’t even deserve to be written about in an analytical sense, the Eagles will surely lose to them. If that ends up being the case, no one talk to me. Seriously.

 

Disclaimer: I wrote this entire blog on Friday. Obviously, there was some news that came out in the middle of the Bama-Georgia game that made me have to feverishly change some of the content.

 

 

I hate everything.

 

Honestly, Gardner Minshew being forced into action makes Sunday’s game even harder to analyze. With a first year coach who has never had a pocket passer, I have no idea what to expect. I still expect the Eagles to win this game. The Jets are that bad. Right?…Right?!

 

 

I’m so confused.

 

I Am Miserable.

 

Quite the somber start to the article given the title, right?

 

Not to be that guy, but I said last week that I had a bad feeling about that game. Yet, as only Philly sports can do, the Eagles suffered a loss so bad and so bewildering that I’m still having trouble understanding it as I sit here and type these words five days later.

 

What should have been a win fueled by momentum was instead a loss that diminishes most of what was already a far-fetched hope that this Eagles team could go on a run toward the playoff. I know what the schedule is. I know each one of the five games remaining on the Birds schedule is an extremely winnable game.

 

But ya know what? That’s exactly what all those teams are saying when they see the Eagles on their schedule too. The craziest part about this perspective is that it all could have been changed if Jalen Reagor simply caught the friggin’ football.

 

 

Despite the fact that Jalen Hurts was horrendous. Despite the fact that Hurts threw not one, but two interceptions in the red zone (one wasn’t his fault, one was inexcusable). Despite the fact that Devonta Smith had only four targets and was wide open on the last play. Despite the fact that Nick Sirianni called a horrendous first half. Despite the fact that Boston Scott fumbled on their first drive the Eagles had with less than two minutes remaining.

 

Despite ALL OF THAT, we can all look at that one individual play and confidently say the Eagles should have won that game.

 

If Jalen Reagor catches that ball, all he has to do is fall backwards into the end zone for a touchdown. Even if he doesn’t get in, the Eagles can run up and spike the ball and get at least one more chance at scoring a touchdown from the one-yard-line. The Eagles would be 6-6, good enough to be the seventh seed in the NFC, and sitting in the driver’s seat for a spot in the postseason.

 

Instead, they find themselves at the 10 seed in the NFC, in a jumbled up mix of five other teams with exactly five wins. At this point, the Birds need to win out to reach the postseason. It’s improbable.

 

…But Not Impossible

 

While it’s not exactly probable to win five straight after such a demoralizing loss, it’s, dare I say…possible.

 

I recognize that this is the literal opposite of what I just said above, especially the part about how expectations are the root of all bad things to happen in this city. Even still, I’m foolishly going to hold out hope for one more week.

 

 

As Philadelphia sports fans, this is the only thing we have left at the moment. Both teams that play in the arena across the street are beginning to crumble. The team adjacent to Xfinity Live technically doesn’t even exist due to the MLB lockout, and even they have been finding ways to disappoint in free agency.

 

So let’s try to rationalize this Eagles-to-the-playoffs scenario in the most realistic way possible.

 

The defense has looked a lot better over the past five or so weeks (with the exception of the Chargers game). They weren’t very opportunistic last week like they had been in previous weeks, especially in terms of the turnover department, but they certainly have played winning football. The defensive lines inability to rush the quarterback is still a major concern though.

 

Offensively, the Eagles have an identity. For whatever reason, Nick Sirianni got away from it last week, especially in some key third and fourth downs in short distance. Even still, having an identity centered around running the football heading into the month of December is a great thing.

 

Expect the Eagles to get back to that identity of running the ball close to 60% of the time against the Jets. Even though Hurts’ probable absence will eliminate an aspect of the run game, I don’t expect it to completely derail the basis of what makes the Eagles run game successful. What makes the Eagles run game click is the offensive line, led by o-line coach Jeff Stoutland. Jason Kelce, Jordan Mailata, and Lane Johnson are on an absolute roll. The run game certainly shouldn’t suffer against one of the worst run defense in the league, regardless of who’s under center.

 

Looking even further than the Jets, when you consider the fact that the Giants and Cowboys both cannot stop the run, the Eagles will match up pretty well with those teams.

 

The only team left on the Eagles schedule that can stop the run is Washington. Much like the Saints team that the Birds played two weeks ago, though, Washington struggles mightily against the pass. Usually, you’ll tend to hear that the run sets up the pass. Against Washington, it’ll be the opposite.

 

I know it’s likely Jalen Hurts won’t play Sunday, but it’s imperative to talk about him because he’s the future…at least for the rest of the year.

 

I know he sucked last week. Anyone who watched that game last week knows that. He clearly has some severe limitations with his throwing ability, and this was something everyone knew way back in August. Yet, during that last drive of last week’s game, Hurts was on the money. He threw not one, but two game-winning touchdowns that were dropped by he who shall not be named.

 

Even if you don’t like Hurts as a passer, the dude is a winner. He has the perfect mentality to be able to rebound from a game like last week. He’s an extremely efficient runner and at the very least has shown flashes of accuracy.

 

At the end of the day, I’ll take someone with his mentality any day of the week. I don’t know if he’s the future of this team, but wasn’t that the point of this season anyway? To figure out who’s worth keeping around for 2022 and beyond?

 

Who the Eagles are Competing Against

 

The Cowboys are winning the NFC East. That seems pretty cut and dry. The Rams are going to be one of the wild card teams, presumably the #5 seed. The only two teams ahead of the Eagles as it stands today that I would consider to be the legitimate favorites for the final two wild card spots are the 49ers and Vikings.

 

 

The two teams just played last week, and the Niners looked like the better team, especially in the second half. The Vikings did very normal Vikings things, such as blowing a first half lead and looking incredibly incompetent in the second half despite having all the talent in the world. The Niners have found their identity and are beginning to turn a corner it appears.

 

The Niners have a much tougher schedule than Minnesota does. Four of their final six games will be on the road, and three of those four road games will be against perennial playoff teams in the Bengals, Titans, and Rams. While that may seem advantageous for the Eagles, remember that in a tiebreaker scenario with San Fran, the Niners will have a leg up because of their week 2 win at the Linc.

 

As for Minnesota, they’ve got some cupcakes. Their next three games are all contests they should win, against the Lions, Steelers, and Bears. After that, they play at home against a slumping Rams team, then they travel to Lambeau to play a Packers team they’ve already beaten this year, and they finish at home against Chicago.

 

The Vikings may be the most unpredictable team in the NFL. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they lost to Detroit then won out. I also wouldn’t be shocked if they finished with a record below .500. Teams will more often than not take on the identity of their quarterback, and Minnesota is no different.

 

Kirk Cousins and the 2021 Vikings are one in the same. You look at them and on the surface you think they’re solid. Cousins has had a great year on paper. The Vikings roster is littered with talent. Yet, they’re 5-6. Why? Unlike the Eagles, they don’t have an identity. Sure, Cousins’ stats look great, but then you watch him play. Every time I see him make a boneheaded throw that wobbles to the turf incomplete, I wonder how the guy tricked a team into giving him the most guaranteed money in NFL history.

 

The Eagles will have to root against both of these teams going forward. Both Minnesota and San Francisco are teams that can be beaten, especially with some of the games they have left. The Eagles will have a shot, as long as they win and keep winning.

 

Are the Birds Making the Playoffs or Not?

 

Gun to my head, I’d say no. They would need too much to happen that’s out of their control, even if they won four of their last five games. The only way for them to definitely make the postseason is to win out, because I don’t see the Rams, Niners, or Vikings doing that. Even in that scenario, they’d likely be the last team in. Also, obviously, the Jalen Hurts injury complicates things.

 

Even if they got to week 18 at home against Dallas in a win and in scenario, I’d be hesitant to say they’d win that game. Everyone keeps saying that Dallas would rest their starters, and I don’t know if that’d necessarily be the case. Yes, they’d more than likely have the division wrapped up, but I think there’s a very real possibility they’ll be playing for seeding purposes.

 

Let’s remember too: this Eagles team is young. They’re not even supposed to be where they are now. If you had told me in August that I’d be sitting here in the first week of December seriously writing about an avenue for the Eagles to get into the postseason I would have spit in your face and cussed your name…politely.

 

Just the fact that they are even in a position to go on a run toward the playoffs is a moral victory in my book.

 

If there’s anything I know about this city and our fans, though, it’s that we don’t give a shit about moral victories. Let’s shock the nation. Go Birds.

 

 

By Matt Szczypiorski | December 5, 2021
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