Week 1 Preview: Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

We’ve made it. Eagles football is finally back, as the Birds will fly south for a match-up with the Dirty Birds in Atlanta. The Eagles are coming off of perhaps the most tumultuous offseason in team history. The head coach that won the franchise’s only Super Bowl? Gone. The quarterback that was supposed to be in midnight green for a decade? Gone. The future Hall of Fame left tackle that should have been gone years ago and was addicted to committing false starts? You get the gist.

 

With all that turnover comes uncertainty. The Eagles hired an offensive minded head coach, Nick Sirianni, who has never called his own plays in the NFL. Sirianni got off to a bit of a rough start as he stuttered his way through his first press conference. However, he has shown his ability to coach and connect with the players throughout training camp and the preseason, which in turn made him more comfortable at the podium.

 

Coming in with Sirianni is a collection of coaches a lot like him: young and smart, but unproven. Jonathan Gannon will take the reigns of the defense after spending the last three years in Indianapolis as a defensive backs coach. He has said that his defense will likely change a lot over the course of the season, which is quite the opposite of former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Shane Steichen will be the offensive coordinator after spending the previous seven seasons with the Chargers. He led the high flying Bolts to the ninth ranked offense in the league in 2020.

 

This Eagles roster is a mix of young, unproven players with potential and aging veteran holdovers from the Super Bowl squad of 2017. The way I see it, this specific roster construction has two viable outcomes. Either that combination of young talent and savvy veteran leadership leads to wins on the field, or the fit of players trending in opposite directions leads to some roster shuffle.

 

With the latter being far more likely in 2021, I view this season as the beginning of the proc — maybe that’s not the best choice of words. Nonetheless, 2021 will be a season focused more on progression and evaluation, and less on wins and losses.

 

Football, however, is about as unpredictable of a sport there is. I could be wrong about the expectations for this Eagles team, I hope I’m wrong. Heck, I’ll even call it the, “Prove Me Wrong,” tour. I obviously want the Eagles to win, I’m just tempering my expectations. The reality of this roster is that it’s very thin behind the starters, and truthfully, we don’t even know how good most of the starters are. The first step to finding out will be on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta.

 

Eagles Offense vs. Falcons Defense

 

Meet The Offense

This offense will go as Jalen Hurts goes. In Hurts’ four starts in 2020, he showed some flashes and some flaws. He did have enough sparks, though, that proved he was worthy of, at the very least, having a chance to show he can be the Eagles franchise quarterback.

 

Make no mistake about it, Hurts’ role as starting quarterback isn’t set in stone beyond this year. He’s playing this season to try to prove that he deserves the job beyond 2021. Hurts did get better during camp as the weeks wore on, which is a good sign after a rocky start.

 

There aren’t many foregone conclusions in Hurts’ game. We know that he is a very good runner, has a decent deep ball, and is a capable passer. With that being said, “capable passer,” isn’t exactly an elite trait. If Hurts wants to be the Birds starting quarterback beyond this season, he will need to improve on his accuracy and his ability to make “NFL type” throws. That means being able to hit a 15-yard out toward the sideline, or being able to squeeze in a throw on a slant route that won’t get Devonta Smith killed.

 

Speaking of Devonta Smith, I expect him to be a star from the get go. In his limited preseason snaps, we were able to get our first up close look at Smith’s uncanny ability to create seperation when running a route.

 

 

Smith should be able to hit the ground running in this game, as the Falcons have a fairly weak secondary. Atlanta’s best cornerback is youngster A.J. Terrell, who graded out as the 62nd best at his position in 2020 according to Pro Football Focus. Smith, along with 2020 rookies Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins, should find themselves getting open consistently on Sunday afternoon.

 

As for the other set of pass catchers, tight ends Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz are both back, something that wasn’t deemed likely throughout camp. While Ertz was expected to be traded, he finds himself on the opening day roster. He has since changed his tune from June regarding his relationship with the Eagles, as he claimed this week he wants to finish his career in Philadelphia. If Both Goedert and Ertz stay healthy, they will form one of the best tight end rooms in the league.

 

The Birds offensive line is finally back to full strength for the first time since 2019. Brandon Brooks is finally back after suffering yet another ruptured achilles in 2020. While he was limited in practice this week, Brooks is reportedly set to start on Sunday at right guard. Here’s to a healthy 2021 and beyond for Brooks.

 

Jordan Mailata won the starting left tackle job with relative ease in training camp. Mailata might be story of the preseason for the Birds. His incredible ascension from rugby player to starting caliber NFL player in just three seasons is nothing short of remarkable. He started a few games last season for the Eagles and performed well above the team’s expectations, so the fact that he was even in a training camp battle with failed first round pick Andre Dillard was a bit of a shock.

 

Mailata and Brooks will be joined by a healthy Lane Johnson at right tackle. Johnson had surgery on a bum ankle in 2020 and was forced to miss the final six games of the season. Getting these three guys back to join Jason Kelce and Isaac Seumalo should form a formidable offensive line once again for the Birds. Let’s hope they’re all able to stay relatively healthy in 2021.

 

 

Outside of Jalen Hurts, another guy who will benefit from an entirely healthy o-line will be third year running back Miles Sanders. The Penn Stater has shown his ability to break off the big run, but has been less consistent outside of the home run play. Whether those inconsistencies were due to his own play or the previous coaching staff’s inability to call run plays will be proven this season. I expect Sanders, as well as the rest of the running back room, to improve in Sirianni’s offense.

 

How The Eagles Matchup With The Falcons D

The Falcons defensive unit is not the strength of the team, to put it lightly. In fact, Atlanta gave up the third most yards per play in 2020 while also surrendering the fourth most passing touchdowns. On the flip side, their run defense was surprisingly stout, as they allowed the sixth least yards rushing a year ago.

 

The Falcons didn’t do too much to improve their defensive unit in the offseason, as they were strapped for cash. In fact, they lost quite a bit from last year’s defense. Both safeties from last year’s opening day roster, Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal, are gone, as well as defensive end Takk McKinley.

 

With all that Atlanta has lost on the defensive side of the ball, this unit has the potential to be even worse than they were a season ago. That should mean good things for a young, but talented group of skill players for the Eagles. Expect Jalen Hurts and company to be able to move the ball at will and put up a decent amount of points on Sunday afternoon.

 

Eagles Defense vs. Falcons Offense

 

Meet The Defense

The new look Jonathan Gannon defense will take the field against a decent, but not overbearing Atlanta Falcon offense. The Birds D has plenty of question marks surrounding the unit after an inconsistent and disappointing 2020 season.

 

The Eagles will once again have a loaded defensive line led by Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox, as well as a revamped secondary with the additions of cornerback Steven Nelson and safety Anthony Harris to go alongside star corner Darius Slay. However, the linebacker unit is still a humongous question mark after the Eagles did little to improve their worst defensive position in the offseason.

 

With that being said, the fact that Nathan Gerry is no longer on the team immediately improves the position. The only offseason addition to the linebacker spot was the signing of middle linebacker Eric Wilson. Wilson, the ex-Viking, will start at middle linebacker on Sunday afternoon despite struggling to tackle throughout the preseason.

 

Starting alongside Wilson will be edge rusher turned linebacker Genard Avery at strongside linebacker, along with 2020 standout Alex Singleton at weakside backer. Singleton has continued to prove that he is a diamond in the rough for the Eagles, and should be a tackling machine once again.

 

Avery, on the other hand, is concerning. Even in his very limited playing time since being acquired in 2019, Avery has rarely lined up as a traditional linebacker. While we truly have no idea how Gannon will use Avery in the defense, this is a questionable fit on paper. Because of this, expect to see a lot of two linebacker, five defensive back looks with Wilson and Singleton joined by Avonte Maddox in the slot cornerback spot.

 

The Eagles will be without their captain and starting safety, Rodney McLeod. The Super Bowl champ is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered against the Ben DiNucci led Cowboys last season. It is unclear when McLeod expects to see his first game action. For the sake of optimism, the fact that he is off the PUP list signals to me that the Eagles believe it’ll be sooner rather than later.

 

 

The focus for this year’s Eagles defense should be on creating takeaways. The Birds finished with the fourth fewest interceptions in the league a year ago, just eight, while nursing an embarrassing -10 turnover differential. Yes, some of that can be attributed to the Eagles poor quarterback play in 2020. However, eight interceptions in 16 games is not going to get the job done if this team wants to have more than four wins this season.

 

How The Eagles Should Defend Atlanta

The Falcons offense will once again be led by former MVP, and local Philly product, Matt Ryan. The Penn Charter graduate is about as consistent as they come at the quarterback position, even with an inconsistent supporting cast. Ryan threw for over 4500 yards to go along with 26 touchdowns for a putrid Atlanta team a year ago. In fact, Ryan hasn’t thrown for less than 4000 yards since 2010. All this to say, any offense with a quarterback as consistent as Ryan should not be taken lightly.

 

Ryan will be throwing to another Philadelphia native, rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. The Archbishop Wood grad was the fourth overall pick in the draft, and is one of the most athletically gifted tight ends to enter the league. Pitts will be a matchup nightmare for the rest of the league for years to come, and that will be no different for the Eagles in week one. None of the Eagles linebackers have the athleticism to keep up with Pitts.

 

 

If I were Jonathan Gannon, I would experiment with putting nickel corner Avonte Maddox across from Pitts. I don’t expect Pitts to line up on the outside too much, so it wouldn’t make sense for Slay or Nelson to line up against him. While Maddox is much shorter than the 6’6″ Pitts, he does possess the physicality and athleticism to cover Pitts. Well, at least of anyone on this defense.

 

Another receiving weapon is former Alabama standout Calvin Ridley. The fourth year pro has quietly blossomed into a smooth route runner and a big play threat. Ridley has a career average of about 14 yards per reception and 26 career touchdowns in his first three seasons. Expect Darius Slay to be across from Ridley for a majority of the contest, as Slay hopes to rebound from a disappointing end to 2020.

 

The Falcons rushing attack leaves a lot to be desired. All three running backs on Atlanta’s roster are new to the team this year. Lead back Mike Davis comes over from Carolina after having the best season of his seven year career filling in for an injured Christian McCaffrey. While he did amass over 1000 total yards in 15 games, he had just two runs of longer than 20 yards. At the past-the-prime age of 28 for a running back, Davis is not a home run threat. The Eagles top 10 rushing defense from a season ago should have some success stopping the Falcons rushing attack.

 

My Prediction

 

This game is about as much of a toss up as there is in the NFL’s week one slate. Both teams have little expectations coming off of horrendous seasons a year ago. Despite the Eagles owning an 11-5 record against the Falcons since 2000, the Eagles haven’t won in Atlanta since they took down a Vick-less Falcon squad in 2003. In each of the four Eagles-Falcons games in Atlanta since then, the margin of victory for the Dirty Birds has been less than four points.

 

Coincidentally, the spread seems to ironically lean right into that history, as the Falcons are currently favored by 3.5 points. I expect this game to be close and high scoring, as I give the advantage to both offenses in this contest. If the Eagles don’t win this game, I think it’s a very real possibility they start the season with four straight losses, as they’ll face perennial playoff teams the next three weeks.

 

For that reason, I am begrudgingly picking the Eagles to eek out a victory in a wild back and forth affair. Jalen Hurts plays well, as he spreads the ball around to all of his receivers and tight ends fairly evenly. Miles Sanders finally gets a good amount of carries on the ground, and gains over 100 all-purpose yards.

 

The Eagles defense does a lot of bending, but no breaking while forcing the Falcons to kick four field goals in Eagles territory. Down five in the fourth quarter, Hurts drives the Eagles down the field and finds Zach Ertz in the end zone to take the lead. After tacking on a two point conversion, the Eagles are able to withstand a late Falcons march and don’t allow them into field goal range to tie the game. The Eagles escape with an electrifying 29-26 victory.

 

If I Were A Betting Man

Eagles +3.5, over 48.5 total points.

 

Broadcast Information

Time: 1:00 P.M. EDT
TV: FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Pam Oliver)
Radio: 94.1 WIP
Stream: NFL Game Pass

 

 

By Matt Szczypiorski | September 10, 2021
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,