The Phillies Are Stuck In The Worst Position In Sports: Mediocrity

The Philadelphia Phillies are one game under .500 as I write this sentence here in mid-May. Chances are, the Phillies will hover around this mark all the way through the regular season’s conclusion in the first week of October. Since coming out of their “rebuild” in 2017, the Phillies have a record of 211-218 over the past three years and 45 games.

 

The Phils have been remarkably consistent at being average during this span. Unfortunately, there are no real rewards to being average. Playing at a .500 level isn’t good enough to get you into the postseason in Major League Baseball the way it might be in the NBA or NHL. It’s also not good enough to land you a highly touted prospect, not that the Phillies have been all that good at scouting and drafting over the past decade anyway.

 

Instead, the Phillies have failed at trying to make the leap from pretender to contender. There are a myriad of reasons for that.

 

What Leads To Mediocrity?

 

There can be a multitude of reasons for mediocrity. This is especially true in baseball, that has so many ways a team can win a ballgame. However, with the Phillies, the reasons are pretty glaring for why this team has not been able to make the jump from good to great.

 

First, and most notably, the pitching staff has been below average to downright horrendous. The bullpen was historically awful a season ago, and likely would have been much worse over the course of a 162 game season. They had the highest team earned run average for any bullpen last season (7.06), while also serving up the most home runs allowed per nine innings in MLB history.

 

This season, the bullpen has been better, but that isn’t saying much at all. Naturally, one of the main goals of the Phillies offseason was to revamp the bullpen. Despite that, this year’s edition of the Phillies relievers is also quite awful, as they have the ninth highest bullpen ERA in the league.

 

Offensively, the Phils lineup looks a whole lot better on paper than it actually is. It has the big names, such as Harper, Realmuto, Hoskins, Gregorius, and Segura. Yet, the Phillies are 20th in home runs and OPS, and 19th in runs scored. However, what’s most concerning to me is the fact that the Phillies have the second most strikeouts in the league.

 

Listen, I know about the analytical side of baseball now and that teams don’t necessarily care as much about striking out as they used to. With that being said, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Houston Astros lead the league in batting average while simultaneously striking out less than every other team in baseball. Meanwhile, the Phillies have struck out 38 times and have been outscored 20-4 in their past three games. Coincidence? I think not.

 

Getting on base hasn’t been a problem for the Phillies this season. They are 12th in batting average and 14th in on base percentage. What has been an issue, however, has been bringing runners across the plate. This has been an issue for the Phillies for the past couple of years, too.

 

In 2019, the Phillies had the second most runners left in scoring position per game in the league. In 2020, they had the third most. This season, the Phillies have improved, but much like the bullpen’s improvement from last season to this season, that really isn’t saying much. They have left the 11th most runners stranded per game this season.

 

I think that part of the reason this offense struggles so much with runners in scoring position goes back to their inability to put the ball in play. Even if a player grounds out or flies out with a runner in scoring position, there is obviously a much higher chance of the runner advancing to the next base or even scoring on a ball put in play. As of now, the Phils are only 18 strikeouts away from matching their strikeout total from all of last season, and they have played 15 less games than that 60 game campaign a year ago.

 

Also, for what it’s worth, making plays like this in the field is the exact opposite of what it takes to be a winning ball club.

 

 

Where Do They Go From Here?

 

The way I see it, the Phillies have two real options. They could either try to build on this squad via trade and free agency, or blow it all up. The best case scenario would be to do a combination of both, but no one should trust anyone in the Phillies upper management to do that.

 

Building on a team by trading and acquiring free agents is tough normally. It’s even harder when you have literally zero tantalizing prospects in your minor league system. Despite being one of the worst teams in the league in the mid-2010s, the Phillies scouting department did little to improve upon the farm system.

 

Most deals made in baseball involve a good amount of solid prospects, which the Phillies do not have. Not many other teams are willing to give up solid major league talent without receiving minor league talent in return. With that being said, Phillies President of Baseball Operations, Dave Dombrowski, has been known for his ability to wheel and deal in the trade market.

 

Building through free agency is just as tough. While baseball doesn’t have a salary cap, the Phillies do already have a top five salary in all of Major League Baseball, despite their average on-field performance. It could be tough to convince an already frugal owner in John Middleton to dish out even more cash for a middling ballclub. Even last offseason felt like the Phillies were pulling teeth to try to get Middleton to pony up to re-sign J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius.

 

It was pretty bold of a billionaire to cry poor the way Middleton did this past offseason during a worldwide pandemic, but that’s a conversation for another time.

 

 

Blowing it up and going back into a rebuilding phase seems unlikely for this Phillies squad. They have far too much money tied into this team and they dished it out far too recently for them to give up on it already. Zack Wheeler is only in year two of his five-year, $100 million deal. J.T. Realmuto is in year one of his massive five year deal that made him the highest paid catcher in league history. Oh, and superstar Bryce Harper is only in year three of his gargantuan 13 year contract that has a full no trade clause.

 

While I do think it would be smart for the Phillies to try and move on from underperforming players like Rhys Hoskins, I would be surprised if they actually pulled the trigger. Hoskins might be the most inconsistent baseball player these eyes have ever seen. When he’s hot, there are few players more intimidating in the batter’s box. However, the flip side of that is when he is struggling, there are few players more frustrating to watch in the batter’s box. Unfortunately, he is struggling more than he’s not. It might be time to move on.

 

As of now, I can’t see a way in which the Phillies completely go into tank mode with a roster like this.

 

What Will The Phillies End Up Doing?

 

My best guess is that the Phillies will probably do next to nothing. They won’t blow it up, and they won’t make any earth shattering moves during the season or in the offseason. They will continue to be okay with being mediocre.

 

That, to me, might be the bigger issue. The Phillies seem to be fine with being average.

 

 

 

 

By Matt Szczypiorski | May 22, 2021
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