Bankrupt the Bookie: Senior Day
Marquette @ St. Johns 12:00 (St. Johns +1, O/U 153.5)
The Pick: Marquette -1
This is a huge game for Marquette off back to back losses to Seton Hall and a bad Depaul team. Marquette is falling in seed projections for the tournament and really needs to pick up this win. St Johns beat Creighton by 20 last Sunday in a really weird game. Creighton shoots 38.2% from three on the year but only shot 14.8% against an average perimeter St Johns defense. In that game St Johns shot 63.6% from three while ranking 244th in three point shooting percentage on the year. St. Johns hot shooting should regress back as the Red Storm have struggled offensively this year ranking 329th in effective field goal percentage and 335th in two point field goal percentage. I don’t see St. Johns being able to score enough and keep pace with Marquette and Markus Howard. Howard can go off for 30 every single game if he wants and I don’t think St. John’s guards are going to be able to stop him. Howard dropped 32 in a 14 point win back in January. Howard struggled from the field that game but was able to get to the line at will. Marquette can’t afford to drop this game while St. Johns focus is more on the Big East tournament as winning it is their only shot of making the tourney. If this game is close late Markus Howard will take over and will Marquette to a win. Lay the points with Marquette.
Villanova @ Georgetown 12:00 (Georgetown +7, O/U 144.5)
The Pick: Villanova -7
Georgetown is looking like they will be without two key players today in guard Mac Mclung and center Omer Yurtseven, both are listed as doubtful. Mclung and Yurtseven have been the Hoyas two leading scorers on the season and have missed the last few games. The Hoya’s have been dealing with a lot of injuries this year and now are really thin, running with a seven man rotation most nights. Georgetown really struggles defending the perimeter, ranking 315th in opponent three point shooting percentage and 298th in opponent percentage of points coming from the three ball. Villanova is one of the best three point shooting teams in the country and really tough to beat if they’re on from deep. Georgetown will have a size advantage down low, however the Hoya’s strength has been on the offensive glass while Nova is strong on the defensive glass so I don’t think this will play a major role. Nova out rebounded the Hoyas in their first meeting even with Yurtseven in the lineup. If Nova can have a decent shooting night they should be able to win by double digits. Lay the points with Villanova.
Seton Hall @ Creighton 2:30 (Creighton -4, O/U 152)
The Pick: Seton Hall +4
One of the best games of the day with the winner locking up at least a share of the Big East regular season crown. Creighton’s offense has caught fire this past month, now ranking top five in adjusted offensive efficiency. Creighton still doesn’t play great defense which is what I think will end their tournament run early. Creighton allows the 4th highest three point scoring rate in Big East games while Seton Hall has been shooting much better on the road. Seton Hall has a strong perimeter defense ranking 61st in the country in opponent three point shooting percentage. Creighton really relies on the three offensively, with 37% of their total points coming from the three ball which is the 38th highest rate in the country. Seton Hall should be able to play tough on the perimeter and really focus on limiting Creighton’s scoring from deep. Both teams struggle rebounding, with Creighton ranking 291st and 266th in offensive and defensive rebounding rates while Seton Hall ranks 141st and 299th. Seton Hall has a size advantage down low so they should be able to control the glass somewhat. Myles Powell only had 12 points, shooting 3-16 from the field and 1-11 from three in their last game. Powell struggled against Villanova Wednesday in his senior night but Seton Hall was able to keep both of those games close. I think we see an inspired performance from Powell today that leads to a Seton Hall win. The Pirates are a better and more complete team and have a major advantage from a defensive perspective. I think Seton Hall ends up winning this one so I’ll take the points with Hall.
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State (Mississippi State -6, O/U 140.5)
The Pick: Mississippi State -6
Mississippi State is off a loss to South Carolina that looked like a must win in order to get into the tournament. Now the Bulldogs absolutely have to win this game against rival Ole Miss and most likely a game or two in the SEC tournament to have a shot at making the dance. Ole Miss embarrassed Mississippi State back in early February winning by 25. I’m betting that the Bulldogs have had this game circled on the schedule since that loss. Ole Miss had struggled since that blowout win losing their next four games before beating up on the bottom of the SEC in Vanderbildt and Mizzou in their last two games. Mississippi State should be able to dominate the glass where they rank 4th in the country in offensive rebounding rate while Ole Miss is 158th in defensive rebounding rate. Ole Miss has issues with fouling, fouling at the 58th highest rate in the country as well as ranking 315th in free throws given up per field goal attempt. Mississippi State ranks 34th in free throws attempted per field goal attempt. They shoot it well from the line hitting 75.3% of their free throws which is 43rd highest rate. The Bulldogs should be able to get plenty of second chance shots on offense and should be able to get to the line a lot off those second chances. Ole Miss isn’t really playing for anything with their season relying on the SEC tournament. I think Mississippi State comes out with an aggressive mindset looking to avenge that blowout loss and won’t take their foot off the pedal until the whistle blows. Lay the points with Mississippi State.
Kentucky @ Florida 1:00 (Florida -3, O/U 136.5)
The Pick: Kentucky +3
Earlier in the week this looked like a classic letdown spot for Kentucky and great situational play for backing Florida. After Kentucky’s second half collapse against Tennessee I’ll be siding with Kentucky here today. The Wildcats were one of the hottest teams in the country going into that Tennessee game, winning eight straight. Their defense had really improved in that stretch, they rank 13th in opponent effective field goal shooting percentage and 23rd in two point shooting percentage defense. They’ve held six of their last eight opponents to 68 points or fewer. Immanuel Quickley has been taking over games lately and has led this Kentucky offense that now ranks 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency and is shooting the three ball at the second highest rate in the SEC. Florida has been one of the more disappointing and inconsistent teams this year. Florida’s perimeter defense has struggled in conference play and Kentucky should be able to take advantage and shoot it well from outside. Kentucky has a considerably higher shooting percentage away from home this season. Florida struggled to protect the ball in their first match up turning it over 16 times. I think Kentucky’s suffocating defense can have that same effect today. Kentucky is the better team and I think they will come out fired up after blowing a huge lead in their last home game, so I’ll take the points here.