Bankrupting the Bookie: Feb 29th Hoops

Arkansas @ Georgia 6:00 (Georgia -1, O/U 149.5)

The Pick: Arkansas +1

Arkansas is a different team with Isaiah Joe in the lineup. After being out for about three weeks Joe came back last Saturday and has led the Razorbacks to two wins scoring 21 and 22 in those games. Arkansas is on the outside looking in for March Madness and could really use a conference road win. Georgia is not going to make the tournament so I question their motivation for this game. Arkansas is a very good defensive team, they rank 33rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, 39th in opponent effective field goal percentage, 25th in forcing turnovers, and 1st in opponent three point shooting percentage. Georgia really struggles shooting the deep ball ranking 321st out of 353 Division One teams in three point shooting percentage. Even with their bad shooting they rank in the top third of the country in three pointers attempted per game and top half in percentage of points coming from the three ball. Arkansas’ perimeter defense should prevent Georgia from doing anything from deep. A major advantage for the Razorbacks is turnovers as Georgia is 270th in offensive turnover rate while Arkansas is 25th in forcing turnovers. Arkansas is also very good with the ball ranking 26th in offensive turnover rate while Georgia struggles to force turnovers ranking 204th in defensive turnovers rate. Georgia has the rebounding advantage where they rank 58th in offensive rebounding rate and 286th in defensive rebounding. Arkansas ranks 333rd in offensive rebounding and 298th in defensive rebounding. I am a little worried about Georgia getting too many second chance buckets but motivation can play a major role in grabbing boards and there is no question Arkansas will be motivated. Georgia’s offense is very inefficient and really relies on Anthony Edwards being put in a decent amount of iso situations and taking over games. Arkansas’ defense will be locked in on stopping Edwards and I don’t think Georgia has another legitimate scorer who can take over. The back court of Isaiah Joe and Mason Jones of Arkansas should be able to operate efficiently and score against a bad Bulldogs defense. Arkansas really needs this win if they want a shot at an at-large bid to the tournament and I think they get it done. Take the points with Arkansas.

San Diego State @ Nevada 8:00 (Nevada +5.5, O/U 143.5)

The Pick: Nevada +5.5

Nevada guard Jalen Harris has been playing out of his mind recently, averaging 28.6 points a game in the month of February and has led the Wolfpack to a 6-1 record this month. Nevada has been putting up points recently averaging 84 a game over their last six. San Diego State has been struggling this week. After losing to UNLV at home last Saturday they came out flat to Colorado State and were down at halftime, eventually coming back to win 66-60. The Aztecs are really missing big man Nathan Mensah, especially against teams with size who can rebound. UNLV and Colorado State both rank in the top 35 in defensive rebounding rate and forced the Aztecs to have a lot of one and done possessions offensively. Nevada should be able to do the same as they rank 39th in defensive rebounding rate while San Diego State is 163rd in offensive rebounding. Nevada plays excellent perimeter defense ranking 16th in opponents three point shooting percentage. Defending the three is very important against a San Diego State team that is 18th in three point shooting percentage and top 60 in percentage of points coming from the three ball. Nevada is also very clean with the ball where they rank 39th in offensive turnover rate. Giving extra possessions to San Diego State is a recipe for disaster. In their first match up back in January San Diego State was able to win 68-55. Nevada only shot 28.1% from the field in that game and I don’t expect that type of poor shooting to happen again. San Diego State has really been relying on Malachi Flynn to take over lately and if he has an off night Nevada will win this game. I think Jalen Harris can go toe to toe with Flynn offensively and believe Nevada will keep it close at home in their biggest game of the season. Take the points with the Wolfpack and sprinkle the moneyline.

Providence @ Villanova 12:00 (Villanova -7, O/U 137)

The Pick: Providence +7

Villanova point guard Collin Gillespie is questionable today according to Jay Wright. If ‘Nova is without their floor general I think they’re going to struggle somewhat to create offense. Providence is a physical team and plays tough on the perimeter and does a good job of not allowing many open shots. In their last match up Nova was able to escape with a 64-60 win, even though Providence was 3-23 from deep. Providence isn’t a great three point shooting team, however they have shot at least 33% in their last three games. I can’t expect another shooting performance like their last game against Nova today.The Wildcats live and die by the three, scoring 40.5% of their points from deep, which is the 8th highest rate in the country. Providence did a good job in their first match up defending the perimeter, allowing Nova to only shoot 28.6% from deep. I expect another defensive effort like that today. Nova has struggled to defend the inside, giving up the 6th highest two point scoring rate. Providence big men Nate Watson and Alpha Diallo should be able to dominate down low. The Friars are playing their best basketball of the season right now, on a three game winning streak with huge wins over Seton Hall and Marquette. Providence is fighting for their tournament life and a win today would go a long way in giving them a shot of dancing. Nova is in a little bit of a look ahead spot with a revenge game against Seton Hall coming up on Wednesday that could decide the regular season Big East champion. If Gillespie is out I really like Providence to keep this game to a one to two possession game late with a shot to win. Even if Gillespie plays I don’t think he’ll be 100% and still like Providence to keep it within the number. Take the points with Providence.

Florida @ Tennessee 2:00 (Tennessee +1, O/U 130.5)

The Pick: Florida -1

Florida has been one of the most disappointing teams this year, many had them as a National Title contender after bringing in transfer Kerry Blackshear. Coach Mike White has been heavily criticized as Florida has not been able to figure it out this year even with all the talent they have. The Gators are now playing their best basketball of the season and are starting to look like the team many thought we’d see all year long. Florida has won four of five, all by 14 or more, and was able to keep it close against the kings of the SEC in Kentucky, losing by 6. Keyontae Johnson and Kerry Blackshear are turning it up offensively and have been taking over games as of late. Tennessee has been struggling since Lamonte Turner went down. The Vol’s defense hasn’t been as good as it was earlier in the season, giving up 86 and 73 in their last two games. Tennessee has been playing better at home but I still think this Florida team is a much better group and starting to click at the right time. Lay the points with Florida.

Illinois State @ Evansville 2:00 (Evansville -1.5, O/U 136)

The Pick: Evansville -1.5

You might remember Evansville from their shocking upset win over number one ranked Kentucky back in November. Well since then the Purple Aces are 7-21 and 0-17 in conference play. Illinois State hasn’t been much better with a 4-13 conference record. There’s been reports that there is major beef between Illinois State’s players and their head coach. It’s senior day for Evansville and they are looking for their first conference win of the season. I’ll take a motivated Purple Aces squad over an Illinois State team that has already quit on their coach and ready for the season to be over. Lay the points with Evansville.