Bankrupt the Bookie: February 15th Hoops Picks
Last week was brutal, a 2-5 day is never easy. I’ve been in the lab all week eyeing this board and let me tell you, I absolutely love it. Let’s cash some winners today.
Mississippi State @ Arkansas 1:00 (Arkansas -2.5, O/U 143)
The Pick: Mississippi State +2.5
I really like this situational spot for Mississippi State. They are off an embarrassing 83-58 loss to instate rivals Ole Miss. Arkansas will be without their star Isaiah Joe again today and have really struggled since he went down with a knee injury. Arkansas is on a three game skid without Joe. Mississippi State has a major advantage on the boards where the Bulldogs rank 2nd in the country in offensive rebounds while Arkansas ranks 294th in defensive boards. Over their last three Arkansas have been out rebounded 136 to 91, two of those games were against Missouri and Tennessee who are both not good rebounding teams. Missouri ranks 89th in offensive rebounding rate and 228th in defensive rebounding rate while Tennessee ranks 106th in offensive rebounding and 229th in defensive rebounding. Mississippi State big man Reggie Perry should absolutely dominate down low. Arkansas is the best team in the country in defending the three point shot but Mississippi State doesn’t rely on the three ball so I don’t see that being a major issue. Mississippi State should be able to dominate down low and get a lot of second chance buckets. The Bulldogs should win this game so I’ll gladly take the 2.5 and sprinkle the money line. Take the points with Mississippi State.
Seton Hall @ Providence 8:00 (Providence +2, O/U 137)
The Pick: Seton Hall -2
Seton Hall is off a tough home loss to Creighton Wednesday night. Hall had one of their worst shooting nights of the year in this one shooting 22.6% from behind the arc and only lost by five. Myles Powell had a rough night going 3-16 from the field for 12 points. Their shooting should regress positively in this one. Seton Hall has been very good defensively this year ranking 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 23rd in defensive two point field goal percentage, and 30th in defensive three point shooting. Providence has had their issues offensively recently averaging 62 over their last five games. Providence should struggle to score against this Pirates defense. Seton Hall is the much better team and I think they come out motivated, especially defensively, after their last loss. Powell should be able to have a better shooting performance and take over late if needed. Lay the points with Seton Hall.
VCU @ Richmond 4:00 (Richmond -1, O/U 142)
The Pick: Richmond -1
I love this spot for Richmond in a huge revenge spot after getting smacked 87-68 in this rivalry game a few weeks ago. VCU guard Marcus Evans is questionable today and if he’s out VCU is really going to struggle. Evans was out last year in the NCAA tournament and VCU got steamrolled 73-58 by UCF. Even if Evans plays he won’t be at 100%. VCU’s strength defensively is forcing turnovers where they rank 5th in the county. Richmond’s guards are very good with the ball and don’t give it up easily, ranking 14th in offensive turnover percentage. Richmond is playing much better since their loss to VCU, scoring an average of 69.6 points and allowing only 51.3 over their last three and winning all three games. VCU has been struggling since the Richmond game, going 1-2. In their last match up VCU shot 47.6% from three while Richmond shot 21.4%. On the year both teams shoot around 36% so I expect this to be more even today. Even if Evans plays I still expect Richmond to win this one. Lay the points with Richmond.
Oklahoma @ Kansas 12:00 (Kansas -11, O/U 136.5)
The Pick: Under 136.5
Kansas has been dominant on defense recently and currently ranks 1st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Over their last five games Kansas has given up an average of 55.6 points. Oklahoma has been able to put up points recently scoring 90 against Iowa State and 82 against Oklahoma State. In those games though the Sooners shot 45% and 38% from three. Over the season they shoot 33% so I don’t expect them to have a shooting performance like that against Kansas. The Jayhawks rank 12th in defending the three ball, allowing opponents to shoot 28.8% from deep. Both teams don’t really like to push the tempo, Kansas ranks 228th in adjusted tempo and Oklahoma ranks 106th. I expect a slow game today and think Oklahoma will get to around the mid 50’s and don’t expect Kansas to score 80. This is too many points for the best defensive team in the country. As long as Oklahoma doesn’t shoot it lights out from deep this game should go under the total.