Bankrupt the Bookie: February 8th Hoops Picks

Last weekend we had a 3-2 day, so right now we’re 5-5 on the year on this blog. Couple plays go our way and we have a winning record. Been grinding this week preparing for this slate of games and let me tell you I LOVE the board. Let’s cash some winners today.

LSU @ Auburn 12:00 (Auburn -5.5, O/U 154)

The Pick: LSU +5.5

This looks like a great situational spot for LSU. They are off a bad loss to Vanderbilt while Auburn is off a tough OT win over Arkansas. Vandy was not missing from deep where they shot 40% from behind the arc, don’t expect Auburn to be able to pull that off. LSU has one of the better offenses in the country, ranking 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency. There is a major advantage on the glass for LSU where they rank 8th in offensive rebounding rate while Auburn ranks 129th in defensive rebounding rate. Both teams really struggle shooting the three, where LSU ranks 295th and Auburn ranks 282nd. Auburn has barely skated by in their wins recently needing double OT to get past Ole Miss 10 days ago and as mentioned needing OT to beat Arkansas. In both of these games there were points where Auburn had a less than 10% chance to win. This stat could point out that Auburn is a resilient team who can fight back at any time, however I think it’s more of an indication as to how lucky Auburn’s been. According to Ken Pom Auburn has been the 2nd luckiest team in the country this year. Going back to the Arkansas game there was a point in the 2nd half Arkansas went nearly 10 minutes without making a field goal. At some point the luck that results in bounces going your way is going to regress. I think LSU comes out angry after their embarrassing performance while Auburn may have some tired legs after a couple tough overtime games. I think LSU has a real shot at winning this game so I’ll take the points with LSU and will be throwing a little on LSU money line.

Purdue @ Indiana 2:00 (Indiana -2, O/U 129.5)

The Pick: Indiana -2

Purdue is off an absolute dominant 104-68 win over Iowa at home while Indiana is on a three game losing streak. I think this is another great situational spot for Indiana here. The home road splits for Purdue are ridiculous. Purdue has been one of the best cover teams at home covering around 65% of their home games over the past few seasons. Going on the road has been a struggle though. At home Purdue is averaging 74.67 points a game in conference play and has a 5-1 record. On the road they are averaging 57.5 points per game in conference play and have a 1-5 record. In their 104 point output against Iowa, Purdue shot 63.1% from the field and 55.9% from behind the arc. This hot shooting probably won’t continue and Purdue is going to regress offensively. Indiana needs this win badly and Purdue off their big win might not come out as hungry as Indiana. The home teams being dominant in Big Ten play has been a trend going on all year and I think this continues again today. Lay the points with Indiana.

Kansas @ TCU 12:00 (TCU +10, O/U 130.5)

The Pick: TCU +10

Kansas has been one of the best teams in the country this year, but have their biggest game of the year coming up on Wednesday against West Virginia. I think this gives us a great situational advantage for TCU as Kansas may be looking past this TCU squad and ahead to West Virginia. TCU is very reliant on their three point shooting where they rank 18th in scoring rate from behind the arc. Kansas ranks as the 30th highest team in points allowed from deep. TCU big man Kevin Samuel matches up well with Kansas star Udoka Azubuike. With Samuel down low, TCU shouldn’t have to double Azubuike that ends up leading to open shots. TCU really needs this win if they want a shot at the tournament. They’re going to come out with everything they have which should make for an emotional game. If Azubuike gets into foul trouble, which he has done in tough conference road games, Kansas is going to have a tough time covering this spread. Kansas should win this but I think TCU will keep it to single digits. Take the points with TCU.

Kentucky @ Tennessee 1:00 (Tennessee +2, O/U 131.5)

The Pick: Kentucky -2

Since Lamonte Turner went down with a season ending injury Tennessee has struggled offensively. Coming into last Saturday’s game against Mississippi State the Vol’s were averaging 62 points a game over their last nine games. They’ve seemed to figure it out a little recently going for 73 and 69 in their last two. They still struggle with turnovers as they rank 12th in the SEC in offensive turnover percentage. Getting to 70 is going to be tough for the Vols against this Kentucky squad that ranks first in the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency and two point field goal percentage. Kentucky also owns a major advantage on the glass against a Tennessee team that is last in the SEC in defensive rebounding. Kentucky big man Nick Richards should absolutely dominate down low. Tennessee’s calling without Turner has been their defensive but Kentucky’s trio of guards in Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley, and Ashton Hagans should be too much for the Vols to handle. On a four game losing streak in Knoxville I think Coach Cal is going to be extra motivated to get this win. Lay the points with Kentucky.

James Madison @ Delaware 2:00 (Delaware -8, O/U 157.5)

The Pick: Delaware -8

Delaware has been a covering machine of late, covering four of their last five, and is on a five game winning streak. They’ve seemed to really find their groove offensively, scoring at least 73 in all of their last five games and getting to 79 three of those five. They rank 15th and 52nd in two point field goal percentage and three point field goal percentage respectively. James Madison has struggled defensively lately giving up at least 78 points in four of their last five. They rank 294th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 252nd in defending two point field goals, and 240th in defending the three ball. James Madison has really had issues keeping it close with teams that shoot a lot of threes, and Delaware average 21.3 attempts a game. James Madison has also struggled with turnovers ranking 331st in offensive turnovers. Giving extra possessions to a Delaware team that’s on a role offensively is going to really hurt James Madison. Delaware should have no issues scoring and I don’t think James Madison is going to be able to put up enough points. Lay the points with Delaware.

UT Rio Grande @ Chicago State 1:05 (Chicago State +14.5, O/U 143)

The Pick: UT Rio Grande -14.5

Fading Chicago State worked out last week with UMKC getting a cover. Chicago State is off a rare cover Thursday night, losing by 22 to New Mexico State, covering by one point. Rio Grande is off an impressive 73-60 win over UMKC. Rio Grande has scored over 70 in seven of their last eight games, against better teams than Chicago State. Rio Grande isn’t a great team by any means, ranking in the bottom half of a lot of statistical categories. One thing they are particularly good at is forcing turnovers where they do so on 23.8% of defensive possessions which is 13th best in the country. One of the many things Chicago State sucks at is holding onto the ball, they rank 2nd to last in offensive turnovers giving it up on 26.3% of offensive possessions. These teams played about a month ago where UT Rio Grande won by 24 and forced 22 turnovers. I expect a similar game to go down today. Fading Chicago State has proven to be profitable so we’re going to continue to ride this. Lay the points with UT Rio Grande.

Jacksonville State @ UT Martin 5:00 (UT Martin -1, O/U 152.5)

The Pick: Over 152.5

We’re back on the UT Martin over trend again this week after a cash last Saturday. UT Martin has been hitting the over in nearly 80% of their games.The main reason for this over trend is that UT Martin is one of the worst defenses in the country ranking towards the bottom in almost every defensive category. UT Martin has been able to put points up as well scoring 74 or more in eight of their last nine games. Jacksonville State is definitely not an offensive powerhouse but they have scored 72 or more in three of their last five games. As long as this UT Martin over trend keeps hitting we’ll keep betting it so I’m on the over here today.