Bankrupt the Bookie: Feb 1st Hoops Picks
Last week we went 2-3 here, a couple of tough losses with having Auburn covering the 8.5 the whole game and blowing it in the last 90 seconds and Memphis being up 11 with 6 mins to go and not scoring the rest of the game. Bounce back week, I love the board so lets cash some winners today.
Tennessee @ Mississippi State 2:00 (Miss St -5.5, O/U 128)
The Pick: Miss St -5.5
Mississippi State has been playing great recently, winning 4 of 5 with the only loss being a 1 point road loss to Oklahoma. Over this five game stretch they’ve been averaging 76 points a game while only giving up 61.4 a game. They rank 24th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are dominant on the offensive glass ranking 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding rate. Tennessee has really struggled offensively since Lamonte Turner went down for the year. They’re averaging 62 points a game over their last nine games. Without Turner they rank last in the SEC in offensive turnover rate, turning the ball over on 22.9% of possessions. The main way Tennessee has been able to score without Turner is with their 3 point shooting, they’re scoring nearly 33% of their points in conference play from behind the arc while shooting 30.7%, which is 287th in the country. Mississippi State is one of the best teams at defending the 3 point shot allowing opponents to shoot only 25.4% in conference play, the best in the SEC and 7th best in the country. Tennessee has also really struggled limiting offensive rebounds, ranking towards the bottom of the SEC. The matchups really favor Mississippi State in this game with the major advantage in offensive rebounding and being able to defend against the 3. Mississippi State should have plenty of opportunities offensively with their rebounding advantage and I don’t see Tennessee being able to light it up from three. The Bulldogs are going to be too much for Tennessee, lay the points with Mississippi State.
Middle Tennessee @ University of Texas San Antonio 4:00 (UTSA -8, O/U 157.5)
The Pick: UTSA -8
UTSA has been the best cover team at home over the last two seasons, covering about 80% of their games. This is a perfect bounce back spot after a bad home loss to UAB. The back court of Jhivan Jackson and Keaton Wallace is one of the best in the country. Middle Tennessee is going to have issues being able to contain these two. UTSA is a very solid offense team, thanks mostly to Jackson and Wallace, they rank 51st in adjusted offensive efficiency, 50th in efficient field goal percentage, 32nd in 3 point shooting percentage, and love to push the tempo ranking 17th in adjusted tempo rate. Middle Tennessee doesn’t really do much well and have been struggling defensively ranking 297th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 262nd in 2 point field goal percentage, 301st in 3 point field goal percentage, and struggle against high tempo teams. Recently they’ve let up 79 and 83 to Marshall and FIU, who both rank in the top 30 in adjusted tempo. If Jackson and Wallace push the tempo and have a decent shooting day from behind the arc the Roadrunners will win by double digits. Lay the points with here with UTSA.
Utah State @ San Diego State 10:00 (SDSU -7.5, O/U 130.5)
The Pick: Utah State +7.5
Utah State struggled to start the season with multiple injuries. Projected 1st round big man Neemias Queta is back and has really helped this Aggies squad that has been playing much better recently. Queta and Justin Bean have been dominant on the glass and have made Utah State the best rebounding team in the conference. This gives them a huge edge over San Diego State that really struggles getting offensive rebounds, ranking 299th in the country. In their last match up San Diego State won by 9, but shot 45% from 3, an area where their average is 35.3%. I don’t expect them to be able to pull of that kind of shooting night again which should lead to a much closer game. This game is more important for Utah State who are fighting to be able to get into the tournament while San Diego State is going to be one of the top seeds. Utah State is going to be able to keep this one close with their rebounding advantage and should force San Diego State to have a lot of one and done offensive possessions. Take the points with Utah State and even sprinkle their money line that’s around +270.
UMKC @ Chicago State 1:05 (Chicago State +15, O/U 140)
The Pick: UMKC -15
Fading Chicago State has been very profitable this season. They are one of, if not, the worst team in college basketball, ranking in the bottom 15 in almost every statistical category. Chicago State has only covered in about 30% of their games. UMKC isn’t a very good team but this is the perfect opportunity to take out any frustrations from this season and show out against an awful Chicago State team. UMKC has won two in a row and has been able to score in their last few games. They rank in the top 50 in 3 point shooting percentage as well, one of the many things Chicago State struggles with. I’ve been fading Chicago State for the last few weeks now and it’s been profitable so I’m back with this trend again today. Lay the points with UMKC.
UT Martin @ Morehead State 3:00 (Morehead State -4.5, O/U 152.5)
The Pick: Over 152.5
UT Martin is the best over team in the country hitting the over in about 80% of games. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the country ranking towards the bottom in most defensive categories. They’ve given up 90 plus in three of their last four games. Morehead State is by no means an offensive powerhouse, they did just put up 90 against SE Missouri State, and have been shooting the ball a little better. It’s been a money maker betting UT Martin overs so I’m on that trend again today.