Super Bowl 54 Props Preview

One of the best gambling days of the year is only a few days away. Even with it being only one game, the Super Bowl has hundreds of props so there’s action for every player, quarter, and pretty much anything you want. I’ll personally be on the Chiefs but wanted to highlight some prop bets that I like too.

Patrick Mahomes Over 30.5 Rushing yards (-121)

Over the second half of the season the 49ers have struggled defending mobile quarterbacks. Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Lamar Jackson combined for a 6.77 yards per carry average. Now that Mahomes is healthy he’s been incorporated more in the ground game, rushing for 53 yards in each of the Chiefs playoff games. Over his last three games Mahomes has had at least 7 rushes. With the number of weapons the Chiefs have, the 9er’s defense isn’t going to be able to key in on stopping Mahomes running. The 49ers strong pass rush helps the case for Mahomes getting some ground yards as he’s going to be forced out of the pocket a decent amount. There should be some space open in the middle of the field that Mahomes can use to his advantage when he’s forced to roll out and run. I also think with the extra week of preparation Reid could add some designed runs for Mahomes to the play script. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mahomes gets close to 50 again so I’ll gladly take over 30.5.

Chris Jones Over 0.5 sacks (+141)

This is a key match up that the Chiefs have a major advantage in. Chris Jones is going to be matched up against back-up center Ben Garland. Garlands filled in well as a run blocker but has struggled in pass blocking. With this extra week of rest Jones should be almost fully healthy. If the Chiefs can get the 9ers into 3rd and longs where Garappolo is forced to pass Jones is going to be able to dominate Garland and get at least one sack. Love the value with this one.

Emmanuel Sanders Over 3.5 receptions (+126)

Jimmy Garrappolo is going to be forced to throw the ball more than eight times Sunday. The Packers couldn’t stop the 9ers rushing attack so there was no need for Jimmy G to sling the ball around. The Chiefs aren’t great at defending the run but are going to be willing to sell out against the run if need be. From a receiving standpoint I think the Chiefs are obviously going to be focused on George Kittle and try to avoid Jimy G relying on his security blanket. If he can’t dump it off to Kittle I think Sanders is the next best option and someone who Garrapollo is going to be locked in with all game. Sanders has Super Bowl experience and I don’t think he’ll be affected by the emotion of the game that could lead to other receivers without his experience possibly dropping a pass early. Sanders is a veteran presence who the 9ers brought in for a reason. I think Garrappolo is going to be locked in with Sanders. He should find himself in good match ups most of the game, not being a primary focus from the Chiefs defensive perspective. I think there’s a really strong chance he gets four catches. The plus value makes this an easy choice.

Number of players with a passing attempt Over 2.5 (+140)

This looks like a great value play with the plus odds. Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid are two of the smartest offensive minds in football and I wouldn’t be surprised for either one of them to try some kind of trick play. The 49ers didn’t need any trick plays to win their first two playoff games but I’d bet Shanahan has a trick or two ready that he’s been saving for over a month now. Shanahan has had Emmanuel Sanders throw the ball on a reverse already this year. There always seems to be some kind of trickery used in the Super Bowl. We don’t even need a completion on a trick play just a third player to have a pass attempt. There’s too much value on this play not to take it.

Total Touchdowns Over 6.5 (+112)

If you’re looking at taking the over 55 for the game I think playing this prop offers more value. For the over 55 to hit but this prop not to hit there would need to be 6 touchdowns, totaling 42 points assuming no missed extra points or 2 point conversions, and 4-5 field goals depending on what number you got for the total. I think both teams know they are going to need to score touchdowns and aren’t going to settle for many field goals. Going this route gives you plus money value and could still hit with the total going under.

Chiefs Over 3 Touchdowns (-152)

I just don’t see how Mahomes and this offense is held to just two touchdowns. One major advantage the Chiefs have over this 49ers defense is in the red zone. The 49ers rank dead last in the NFL defending 11 personnel, 3 WR’s, 1 TE, and 1 RB, in the red zone. The Chiefs use 11 personnel in the red zone the most in the NFL. If the Chiefs are able to move the ball and get into the red zone I don’t see anyway they don’t score 3 touchdowns, which would push this bet. There is a lot of juice with this prop but having the opportunity for a push if the Chiefs really struggle offensively and only get 3 touchdowns is worth it for me.

Kendrick Bourne to score a TD (+300), 1st half TD (+700), 1st quarter TD (+1800)

Bourne is a sneaky guy who, like Sanders, isn’t going to be a primary focus from a Chiefs defensive perspective, and could lead to a really good matchup on a few plays that the 49ers could exploit. Bourne has had a touchdown in 5 games this year, including the playoff game against the Vikings, 4 of those games he scored in the 1st half and 3 were in the 1st quarter. Bourne seems to get a good matchup that Garoppolo and Shanahan like early on in games. I’ll be sprinkling across all three of these bets praying for an early TD to cash all of them.