Bankrupt the Bookie: Jan 25th Hoops Picks
Illinois @ Michigan 12:00 (Michigan -4, O/U 140)
The Pick: Illinois +4
A major story line this season has been the dominance of Big Ten home teams. In conference play home teams have a 44-10 record thus far. Illinois however has been the best road team in the conference with two road wins against Wisconsin and Purdue. Illinois is playing its best basketball of the year right now, on a five game winning streak. Over this five game stretch Illinois is averaging 68.3 points a game against some of the better defenses in the Big Ten. Illinois is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, ranking 2nd in rebounding margin and top 10 in rebounding rate. While Michigan has struggled on the glass,ranking 106th in opponents offensive rebounding and 191st in opponents defensive rebounds per game. In general Michigan has really struggled lately with Isiah Livers being out. Since his injury Michigan is 1-4 in conference play. Michigan’s defense has been the biggest issue with Livers being out. Prior to his injury on December 21st, opponents were averaging 68.5 points per game and shot 42% from the field. Since he’s been out opponents are averaging 80.4 points a game and shooting 48% from the field. Illinois hasn’t been shooting great as of late but against this struggling Michigan defense I expect them to find their shots a lot easier. They should also be able to dominate the rebounding margin, forcing a lot of one and done’s for Michigan while getting alot of second opportunities offensively. Illinois is the better team at this point in the year so I’ll take the points in this one. Livers is listed as doubtful as of tonight but if he somehow is cleared before tip I would stay away from this one.
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville 5:30 (SIUE -1.5, O/U 152.5)
The Pick: Over 152.5
UT Martin has been one of the best over teams in college basketball, only Houston Baptist has a higher over percentage in the country. UT Martin has given up 80 plus in 11 straight games and is one of the worst defenses in the country. SIUE hasn’t been a great offense team so far but has scored 70 plus in 3 of their last 5 against better defenses than UT Martin. UT has been shooting the ball better lately and SIUE has struggled defending the perimeter. Betting UT Martin overs has been a money maker so I’m on that trend today.
SMU @ Memphis 4:00 (Memphis -5.5, O/U 141)
The Pick: Memphis -5.5
This is a perfect bounce back spot for Memphis after losing at Tulsa by 40 Wednesday night. Memphis had their worst shooting night of the year by far, shooting 2-21 from 3. Memphis is much more comfortable at home where they are 10-1. SMU has really struggled on the road in conference play especially defensively. They rank 10th in the conference in defensive efficiency and 9th in 3 point defensive percentage. SMU hasn’t been able to force many turnovers which gives Memphis a great opportunity to move the ball around and find open shooters. This is a great spot for Memphis to get back to shooting 3’s efficiently. Defensively Memphis is great inside the paint ranking 2nd in the conference in defensive rebounding and allowing opponents to shoot only 39.8% inside the 3 point line. SMU is going to be forced to shoot 3’s which they’ve struggled to do on the road. Memphis is going to come out angry after their embarrassment against Tulsa and if they can have an average game from 3 they should win convincely. Lay the points with Memphis.
Iowa State @ Auburn 12:00 (Auburn -7.5, O/U 146)
The Pick: Auburn -7.5
Iowa State has been awful on the road, going winless in their 5 games. Auburn has been dominant at home with a 10-0 record. Auburn has two major advantages in this game, 3 point shooting and rebounding. Auburn shoots a lot of 3s while Iowa State struggles defending the 3, especially on the road. The Cyclones rank 331st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, allowing opponents to shoot 37.2%. On the road they are much worse where opponents shoot 44.9% from 3, which is dead last in the country. Auburn is going to dominate the boards in this one as they rank 12th in rebounding rate in home games while Iowa State is 206th. Auburn is going to have plenty of second opportunities offensively and should force Iowa State to go one and done a lot. With the amount of 3s Auburn shoots and how badly Iowa State defends 3s Auburn should be able to win easily. Even if Auburn has a bad shooting day the rebounding advantage should allow them to pull away late. Lay the points with Auburn.
Baylor @ Florida 8:00 (Florida -1.5, O/U 130.5)
The Pick: Florida -1.5
Baylor has been flirting with a loss over their last two games and probably should have lost at Oklahoma State where the Cowboys gave away that game late. Last Saturday Florida beat #4 ranked Auburn by 22. This is going to be a crazy atmosphere in Gainesville that’s really going to help Florida. Baylor is a legit national title contender but this year in college basketball there are really no truly dominant teams and nobody has been able to hold onto the number 1 spot for very long. This is only the 5th time a number 1 ranked team is a road underdog to an unranked team. The unranked home favorite has won and covered three of those four times. I think Baylor falls in this one. Lay the 1.5 with Florida.