Bankrupt the Bookie: Week 14 CFB Winners
Wisconsin @ Minnesota 3:30 (Minnesota +3, O/U 47.5)
The Pick: Under 47.5
Wisconsin is the best secondary Minnesota has faced this year. The Badgers rank 6th in passing yards allowed and 15th in passing success rate. Wisconsin’s defense also ranks 2nd in havoc, which is an advanced metric that takes into account tackles for loss, deflected passes, and forced turnovers. High ranking havoc teams often have their opponents in 2nd and 3rd and longs, making it tougher to convert leading to less points. Gophers QB Tanner Morgan isn’t going to have much time in the pocket against this Badgers defense that ranks 4th in sacks, along with protection being an issue for the Gophers offensive line that ranks 84th in sacks allowed. Minnesota’s passing attack isn’t going to be able to throw the ball all over the field like they’ve done against some of their weaker opponents. Wisconsin’s offensive identity has been the same for a long time, a strong run game behind one of the country’s best offensive lines. This year has been the same with the Badgers ranking 9th in rushing success, 14th in rushing yards per game, and 8th in yards per carry. Minnesota has a very solid defense but has been exceptionally good at limiting big plays. Don’t expect the Badgers to gain too many chunk plays against this Gophers defense. Both teams are at the top of the country in time of possession rankings, Badgers are number 1 while the Gophers rank 4th. This bodes well for the under with both offenses being more reliant on going on long, time consuming drives to score. The weather won’t help either team on offense with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow expected during the game along with wind gusts around 15-16 mph expected. This game has all the makings of an ugly low scoring game. Take the under.
University of Louisiana Monroe (ULM) @ University of Louisiana Lafayette (ULL) 7:30 (ULL -19.5, O/U 70)
The Pick: Over 70
The University of Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns have one of the best offenses in the country, ranking 10th in scoring putting up 39.5 points per game, 5th in rushing yards per game, 2nd in yards per carry, and 9th in 3rd down conversion rate. ULM has one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 127th (out of 130 teams) in scoring defense giving up 39.40 points per game, 127th in rushing yards allowed per game, 127th in yards per rush, and 105th in third down stoppage percentage. On the other side UL Monroe has been able to put up points averaging 31.7 a game along with ranking 31st in rushing yards per game and 15th in yards per carry. ULL has been good defensively but struggles against the run. Both teams strengths offensively are their ground games while both teams weaknesses defensively are defending the run. 70 is a lot of points especially for two run heavy offenses, but both of these offenses have been able to rip off big runs while both defenses have given up a lot of big runs. I can easily see the Ragin’ Cajuns getting to 50 plus and UL Monroe shouldn’t have a problem scoring 3 plus touchdowns which would easily hit the over. Also the fact that it’s a rivalry game means ULL shouldn’t be looking to take their foot off the gas if it starts to get ugly at some point. Expect a ton of points in the Battle on the Bayou and take the over.
Army @ Hawaii 12:00 AM (Hawaii -3, O/U 55)
The Pick: Army ML +120
Hawaii’s off an ugly win over San Diego State that secured them a spot in Mountain West Championship game next week against Boise State. Army is sitting at 5-6 and needs a win to become bowl eligible. Army’s offense seems to have gotten in a groove the past two weeks combining for 110 points, granted it was against UMass, the worst defense in the country, and VMI. The weather report is calling for a very windy night with gusts of around 20 mph throughout the game. This plays a huge role and gives a major advantage to Army and their triple option attack. Hawaii is very reliant on the pass and rarely runs the ball, throwing with this kind of wind is going to be tough and I don’t expect Hawaii to find much success. Army’s ground game is one of the best in the country ranking 3rd in rushing yards per game and 4th in rushing success rate; while Hawaii struggles to defend the run ranking 94th in rushing yards allowed per game and 110th in opponent rushing success rate. This could also be a look ahead spot for Hawaii with the Mountain West title up for grabs next week. I think Army comes out more determined needing this win more than Hawaii. The weather is going to play a major role in finding success on offense, which Army should have no problem in doing. Take Army outright.
Now I know these aren’t the biggest games Saturday and you can’t be asking someone to throw on Louisiana Monroe- Louisiana Lafayette at prime time, so if you’re looking for some action on the big games here’s my leans for those games.
Ohio State @ Michigan:
I’m siding with OSU -8 here. Public seems to love Michigan with how good they’ve looked the past few weeks, but you don’t get rich betting against the Buckeyes, especially in this match up. The weather is looking ugly with rain and wind expected at game time, which plays in Ohio State’s favor having the better ground game. Ohio State is too good this year and should win by double digits.
Alabama @ Auburn:
I think I’m gonna be siding with Auburn +3.5 in the Iron Bowl. We really don’t know what Mac Jones is yet and I don’t think you can lay the points with him at this point. Auburn’s defense is legit and Bo Nix has looked much better at home. Auburn’s gonna have a real shot at winning this game.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State:
You have to bet the over in Bedlam, there’s nothing like watching these two teams throwing the ball all over the field trying to score 100. I don’t love a side on this one so go with the over.