Bankrupt the Bookie: CFB Week 13 Winners
SMU @ Navy 3:30 (Navy -3.5, O/U 67)
The Pick: SMU Team Total Over 31
Little bit of an oddball pick hear but hear me out. SMU has one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 45.1 points per game, ranking 7th. They haven’t been held under 31 points all season and have only been held under 40 twice. Navy is probably the best defense the Mustangs have faced thus far, but SMU still own a major advantage in this match up. QB Shane Buechele leads one of the best passing attacks in the nation, ranking 7th in passing yards per game, 26th in passing efficiency, and 43rd in yards per completion. Navy however isn’t great defending the pass ranking 53rd in passing yards allowed. Navy let Notre Dame and Ian Book shred them last week throwing for 284 yards and 5 touchdowns giving up 52 points. Notre Dame isn’t the explosive offense that SMU is. SMU runs a high tempo offense averaging the most plays per game in the country, their tempo will give them plenty of opportunities on offense to put up points. SMU should have no problem scoring in the mid 30’s.
Minnesota @ Northwestern 12:00 (Minnesota -14, O/U 39.5)
The Pick: Under 39.5
This game is pretty much meaningless for Minnesota. Win or lose their match up next week against Wisconsin is going to determine the Big 10 West winner, unless Wisconsin falls as 25 point favorites vs Purdue. With their loss last week Minnesota realistically doesn’t have much of a shot at the playoffs so they’re really just playing for a shot at the Big 10 title at this point. Last week was a classic letdown spot for the Gophers and we saw it come to fruition, scoring 6 points in the first half. This is a classic look ahead spot for the Gophers, with their season coming down to next week against Wisconsin. With QB Tanner Morgan in concussion protocol, even if he plays, I don’t expect the Gophers to light up the scoreboard. Northwestern has a solid defense only giving up an average of 23.50 points per game. Northwestern offense has been absolutely awful this season, ranking 2nd to last in points per game. They’ve looked better the last two weeks combining for 67, granted 45 of them were against the worst defense in the nation in UMass. Minnesota has a strong defense and I don’t expect them to let Northwestern do much of anything on offense. This game has all the makings of an ugly Big 10 game with lots of punts and not much offense. Take the under.
BYU @ UMass 12:00 (UMass +40, O/U 69)
The Pick: 1H Under 40
Betting an under in a UMass game almost seems like burning money with how bad their defense has been. UMass is by far the worst defense in college football, arguably the worst defense we’ve seen in years. There is an interesting match up going on though. UMass is giving up an average of 33.1 points in the first half, but they have given opponents a little trouble in the 1st quarter in their home games. They’ve shut out Northwestern and Southern Illinois in the opening quarter. BYU has struggled offensively to start games, averaging 4.7 1st quarter points this year. Zach Wilson, who started the year under center, is back from injury, but who knows how much he’ll play with arguably their biggest game of the year next week. BYU’s backup and third string QBs are both out so 4th stringer Joe Critchlow looks like he’ll get a lot of time and may even start. BYU will also be without multiple skill position players on the offensive side and will be starting three true freshmen on the offensive line. On the defensive side BYU has one of the better front sevens in the country and should give a UMass offense that isn’t very good a lot of trouble. With all of the moving pieces on the offensive side for BYU I expect them to struggle to start the game, and if they do it’ll make it very tough for this game to go over 40 in the 1st half. UMass isn’t going to do much of anything offensively. Take the 1st half under.
Louisiana Tech @ UAB 3:30 (UAB -6.5, O/U 44.5)
The Pick: UAB -6.5
Louisiana Tech will be rolling out a 3rd string QB with the suspension of starter J’Mar Smith and injury to backup Aaron Allen. Louisiana Tech will also be without their best offensive weapon in WR Adrain Hardy due to suspension. UAB has the best defense of the Power 5 teams and one of the best defenses in the country ranking 16th in the in scoring defense, giving up 18.7 points per game, 4th in opponent rushing success, 5th in opponent passing success, and 10th in sack rate. Louisiana Tech should have major problems with this defense. Tech really struggled last week with backup Aaron Allen losing 31-10 to Marshall. Struggling as much as they did against a Marshall defense that isn’t anything special, I don’t see how Tech’s third string, who hasn’t gotten any snaps all year, to find much success against UAB’s defense. UAB has also gotten healthy on the offensive side with multiple skill position players returning. Expect UAB to roll in this one. Lay the points with UAB.