Bankrupt the Bookie: Week 11 CFB Winners

Purdue @ Northwestern 12:00 (Northwestern +2, O/U 41)

The Pick: Under 41

Northwestern’s offense is awful, ranking dead last in the country in scoring, putting up an abysmal 9.8 points per game, and 3rd to last in yards per game. In their last 3 games they’ve scored a total of 6 points and gained a combined 571 yards. Their defense has been solid, ranking 36th in yards per game and 53rd in scoring defense, allowing an average of 25.6 points per game. They struggled last week against Indiana giving up 34 points and 400+ yards. A lot of this was due to bad starting field position for the defense as Northwestern’s offense turned the ball over 3 times. Purdue is off a big comeback win against Nebraska. The Boilermakers offense is nothing special, putting up an average of 24.6 points a game which ranks 95th in the country. QB Jack Plummer is likely out for the year making him the 3rd Purdue QB to go down this year. Fourth string walk-on Aidan O’Connell is the presumed starter now with a true freshman and another walk-on as his two backup’s. O’Connell looked good last week leading Purdue on its game winning drive by completing 6 of his 7 passes. I don’t see O’Connell being able to light up the scoreboard against this Northwestern pass defense that ranks 27th in passing yards allowed as well as 24th in yards per completion. Northwestern weakness defensively has been against the run but Purdue doesn’t have a ground game ranking 2nd to last in yards per game, only gaining an average of 77.1 yards on the ground, 3rd to last in yards per rush, and 121st in rushing attempts. This game has all the makings of an ugly Big 10 match up with a lot of punts and not much offense. I’d be surprised if Northwestern can get more than 10 points and I don’t expect O’Connell to lead the Purdue offense to 30 plus. Take the under.

Illinois @ Michigan State 3:30 (MSU -14.5, O/U 44.5)

The Pick: Illinois +14.5

Illinois ranks around the middle in a lot of offensive categories but still has been able to put points up, averaging 30 a game. Michigan State’s defense hasn’t been what many expected it to be giving up 28 plus points in its last 4 games. They still have a lot of talent on the defensive front and thanks to their strong start still rank 33rd in scoring defense and 20th in yards allowed per game. Senior QB Brian Lewerke hasn’t been able to do much for the Spartans offense that ranks 64th in passing offense. Their ground game has been even worse ranking 118th in yards per game and 111th in yards per rush. The Spartans have put up 17 points in their last 3 games combined. The Illini defense is nothing special but still rank 48th in scoring defense giving up 24.80 points per game and have been playing much better allowing 6 and 10 points to Purdue and Rutgers in the last two weeks. The Illini defense leads the country in forced turnovers. Expect the Spartans to turn the ball over at least once as they already have 13 turnovers lost. Illinois is playing much better football right now as they’re on a 3 game win streak started with their huge upset of Wisconsin. Michigan State is off a bye after 3 straight losses to Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Michigan State was shut out by Wisconsin while Illinois was able to put up 24. This is too many points for a Michigan State team that’s playing bad football against an Illinois team that’s playing its best football in a long time. Take Illinois and the points.

Penn State @ Minnesota 12:00 (Minnesota +6.5 O/U 48)

The Pick: Penn State -6.5

Minnesota’s offense has been playing great to start the season scoring 38.4 points per game, which ranks 14th in the country. A lot of their offensive success is due to running back Rodney Smith whose averaging 5.77 yards per carry as the Gophers ground game ranks 31st in rushing yards a game, averaging 204.5 a game. The ground game is what’s most important for this Minnesota offense as their passing attack ranks in the mid 70’s in most categories. Minnesota’s defense started off the year poorly giving up 30 plus in 3 straight weeks to Fresno State, Georgia Southern, and Purdue. They’ve been much better recently giving up an average of 10.3 in their last 3 games. Penn State’s offense is by far the best that Minnesota has had to face this year. The Nittany Lions offense has been inconsistent at times, as we’ve seen them score 49 combined points in the first half against Purdue and Michigan, while then only combining for 14 in the second halves of those games. When Penn State’s offense gets on a roll they’re tough to stop. Most of the offensive firepower comes from speedy wideout KJ Hamler, who’s going to be a very difficult match up for the Minnesota secondary. A lot of Penn State’s success this year though is due to its defense that is giving up 9.6 points per game, 2nd best in the country. Penn State strength defensively is against the run with their stud front seven group, only allowing 68.4 rushing yards per game which also ranks 2nd in the nation and a 1.99 yards per carry average which is number 1 in the country. Minnesota has looked very good this season and an undefeated record is impressive, but they’ve played one of the weaker schedules in college football. They’ve played 5 of the worst teams in the Big 10 and struggled early on in their non conference games against South Dakota State, Fresno State, and Georgia Southern. This stout Penn State defense is easily the best Minnesota has faced and I expect them to struggle offensively. I don’t expect Minnesota’s ground game to be able to put up 200 plus yards as they’ve been able to do all season. Without a dominant ground attack Minnesota is going to struggle to put points up. If Penn State is able to get Hamler the ball in space they shouldn’t have issues being able to outscore Minnesota. I expect a lower scoring game but Penn State’s offense should be able to put up enough points and let their defense dominate. The Nittany Lions should win by 10 plus. Lay the points with Penn State.

Missouri @ Georgia 7:00 (Georgia -16.5, O/U 48)

The Pick: Georgia -16.5

Georgia’s defense looked dominant last week against Florida as the Gators struggled to do anything on offense until the 4th quarter. Georgia’s defense ranks at the top of most categories, T-4th in scoring defense, 8th in yards per game, 4th in rushing yards per game, and 11th in yards per carry. Missouri has looked bad in its last 2 games, losing a close game to Vanderbilt and getting smoked by 3 touchdowns by Kentucky’s converted wideout turned backup QB. Kelly Bryant hasn’t been putting up the Heisman numbers some expected but he’s been very good this year. Bryant’s dealing with a few injuries and isn’t 100%. Missouri coach Barry Odom said earlier this week that if the game was being played Tuesday he wouldn’t play. Bryant has said he’s at about 75%. Even if Bryant plays he’ll be hampered by his leg injuries and that doesn’t bode well against this Georgia defense. If he’s out and backup Taylor Powell steps in this line is going to skyrocket towards Georgia -21. Georgia still has a shot at the playoffs and they’re going to want to impress the committee by steam rolling everyone left on their schedule. Even if Bryant plays I still like Georgia -16.5, but if he’s ruled out we’re getting great value at this number. Lay the points with Georgia.