Bankrupt The Bookie : Week 10 College Football Winners
Georgia @ Florida 3:30 (Florida +6, O/U 45)
The Pick: Under 45
Georgia’s defense has been one of the better units in the country this year, ranking 12th in opponents pass efficiency, 4th in yards per pass attempt and yards per completion, 18th in passing yards per game, 5th in rushing yards per game, and 13th in yards per rush. Florida’s strength offensively is passing as QB Kyle Trask has led the Gators to the 8th best passing success rate. However Florida has lacked explosiveness in the passing game ranking 78th in passing explosiveness. Florida’s run game has been non existent behind a weak offensive line. Trask isn’t going to have much time behind his line against Georgia’s pass rush; so expect Florida to try to go on long methodical drives with a lot of short passes and attempt to pick apart Georgia’s secondary. In Georgia’s loss to South Carolina QB Jake Fromm attempted 51 passes. In that loss Georgia got away from its strength, which has been running the ball behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. I think coach Kirby Smart realizes he can’t win with Fromm throwing that much and will go back to what’s worked in the past. Florida has a good defense that has gotten healthy with the bye week. They haven’t been great against the run, but have done a decent job limiting big runs. Georgia’s red zone defense is one of the best units in college football, ranking 1st in red zone touchdown percentage and 3rd in red zone scoring. Expect Georgia’s game plan to focus on running the ball while Florida attempts to try and pick apart Georgia with quick passing plays. Two strong defenses and two game plans that lean towards longer drives, expect a lower scoring game and take the under. If you’re looking at a spread bet I lean Georgia -6.
Kansas State @ Kansas 3:30 (Kansas +6.5, O/U 54.5)
The Pick: Kansas +6.5
Kansas’s offense has looked great the last two weeks, dropping 48 and nearly beating Texas and then 37 in a win against Texas Tech. They combined for nearly 1,100 yards in those two games. This is a classic hangover spot, Kansas State off their biggest win in recent history may be overlooking this game, expecting the same old awful Jayhawks team. Kansas is far from awful and are putting together one of their best seasons in awhile. Kansas has a very explosive offense, ranking 27th and 18th in rushing and passing explosiveness. This K-State defense has been very vulnerable against offenses that gain big plays on the ground where they rank 128th in opponent rush explosiveness. They also struggle against the run in general ranking 89th in rushing yards allowed per game and 126th in opponent yards per rush. This should be a close game and Kansas has a great shot of pulling the upset. Take Kansas and the points and even sprinkle the Kansas moneyline.
Northwestern @ Indiana 7:00 (Indiana -11, O/U 44.5)
The Pick: Under 44.5
Northwestern has the worst offense in the country, averaging 10.7 points per game which ranks dead last. They’ve put up 10, 3, and 0 in their last 3 games. Their defense is what has kept them in some games. Their pass defense is one of the better units in the country ranking 15th in passing yards allowed per game, only allowing 180 yards per contest. Northwestern’s run defense isn’t as strong, ranking 64th in rushing yards per game and 63rd in yards per rush. Indiana is a pass heavy offense ranking 11th in passing yards per game and 11th in passing attempts per game. I don’t expect Indiana to be able to throw the ball all over the field against this Northwestern secondary. The Hoosiers should try to establish the run which plays in our favor. Northwestern isn’t going to be able to put up many points and with Indiana being forced to go on longer drives with the clock running , expect a lower scoring game. Take the under.
Army @ Air Force 3:30 (Air Force -16, Over/Under 45)
The Pick: Under 45
This game is a match-up of two very run heavy offenses. Army ranks 6th in rushing yards per game, 2nd in rushing attempts per game, but 41st in yards per run. This rushing attack isn’t as strong as years prior as they’ve already been held under 200 yards rushing two times this season. Air Force is one of the best run defenses in the country, ranking 11th in rushing yards per game and 25th in yards per rush. Air Force is also a run heavy offense that ranks 2nd in rushing yards per game, 14th in yards per run, and 1st in rushing attempts per game. This rivalry game is always a physical tough game that often leads to a low score, the last 5 games have gone under this years total as well as 7 of the last 10. Expect Air Force to be able to limit Army’s chunk run plays and force Army to go on longer sustained drives to score. With both offenses being run centric and Air Forces strong run defense expect a low scoring physical game as usual. Take the under.
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina 7:30 (South Carolina -15.5, O/U 51.5)
The Pick: Vanderbilt +15.5
Vanderbilt is off a bye after upsetting Missouri the week before while South Carolina just got stomped 41-21 by a bad Tennessee team. South Carolina hasn’t looked good since beating Georgia, that huge win may have gone to the head of some of the guys. Vanderbilt seems like the hungrier team and they seem to be playing for coach Derek Mason amidst all the Jeff Fisher rumors. I like Vandy to keep this one somewhat close. Take Vandy and the points.
Akron @ Bowling Green 2:00 (Bowling Green -5.5, O/U 51.5)
The Pick: Under 51.5
This game is going to be so terrible, so why not have a little action on it. Both of these offenses are absolutely horrendous. Akron has the 2nd worst scoring offenses, only ahead of Northwestern, averaging 10.8 points per game while Bowling Green isn’t much better putting up 15.4 points per game. Both defenses aren’t very good either. The weather out in Bowling Green, Ohio doesn’t look great, with some rain and maybe snow expected and decent wind gusts, which plays in favor of an under. I’m expecting an ugly game and hopefully the weather can help limit some big plays. Take the under.
Oregon @ USC 8:00 (Oregon -4.5, O/U 62)
The Pick: Over 62
The Trojans have some major injuries on the defensive side of the ball and will be out a few of their biggest play makers. Oregon’s defense has been good this year but have had some issues with pass heavy offenses. USC’s air raid offense is going to try and attack those weaknesses. Oregon’s offense led by Justin Herbert shouldn’t have issues scoring against this depleted Trojans defense. Both teams have high flying offenses and points won’t be hard to come by. Expect some fireworks in this Pac 12 matchup and take the over.