Bankrupt the Bookie: Week 9 College Football Winners
Auburn @ LSU 3:30 (LSU -10, O/U 59)
The Pick: LSU -10 and Over 59 (2 units on over/1.5 on LSU-10)
The battle of the Tigers. Mike(awesome tiger name) vs Aubie. LSU’s offense is an absolute wagon this year averaging 50.1 points per game. This year is not what we’ve grown accustomed from LSU. Over the years the Tigers have had a very strong defense and a weak offense. This season the LSU defense hasn’t been very good, allowing 29.25 points per game and 5.1 yards per play to just its Power 5 conference opponents, which includes Vanderbilt who scored 38. LSU’s offense with Heisman favorite Joe Burrow has been nearly unstoppable. Auburn’s defense hasn’t been super impressive, allowing 23 points to a weak Mississippi State team, and ranks in the mid 20’s in most defensive categories. LSU should easily get into the mid 30’s at absolute least and Auburn is going to be able to score against this weak LSU defense, Auburn ranks 23rd in points per game averaging 36.3. This total is way too low I had it at around 65-66 and I still would have taken the over at that number. LSU has been very good ATS team with a 5-2 record against the spread. This atmosphere is going to be tough for freshman Auburn QB Bo Nix. Nix looked bad in his last tough road SEC game throwing 3 interceptions on 11-27 day against Florida. LSU is on a mission this year and I don’t see Auburn being able to stop this train. I could see Auburn sorta hanging around in the first half but any turnovers for Nix giving LSU good field position is going to be a disaster for Auburn. Expect a high scoring game and for LSU to roll, take LSU -10 and the over. Geux Tigers.
Penn State @ Michigan State 3:30 (MSU+6.5, O/U 44)
The Pick: Under 44 (1.5 units)
Last week’s game against Michigan was a tale of two halves for Penn State. The Nittany Lions dominated the first half putting up 21 points and averaged 7 yards per play but got shut down in the 2nd half only scoring 7 points and averaging an abysmal 1.9 yards per play. Struggling offensively in on of the two halves has been an issue this year for this Nittany Lions team. This offense has been very inconsistent and much of its offense is dependent on the deep ball to KJ Hamler. Penn State has had success when establishing the run with its committee of backs. Coming into the season Michigan State’s defensive line looked like the best in the country. The numbers this defense has put up so far hasn’t backed up that claim but the talent on the front is still there. The reason Penn State is undefeated is because of its defense, which ranks 12th in yards allowed per game and 3rd in points allowed, averaging only 10 points allowed per game. This is a matchup of two very strong defenses and one inconsistent offense and one not very good offense. Michigan State ranks 64th in the country in passing offense, 110th in rushing offense, and 96th in scoring offense. The weather in East Lansing is calling for rain during gametime. I don’t expect the Spartans to be able to do much offensively against this stout Nittany Lions defense. We’ll see if Penn State can put together two strong halfs on the offensive side. If they don’t this game should easily go under and even if they are able to their defense has a great shot of keeping the Spartans limited on the scoreboard and the game still going under. Expect a low scoring sloppy game and take the under.
Missouri @ Kentucky 7:30 (Kentucky +9.5, O/U 44)
The Pick: Mizzou -10
Missouri is off an embarrassing 21-14 loss to Vanderbilt last week while Kentucky failed to score and lost 21-0 to Georgia last week. After injuries at the quarterback position Kentucky is again rolling out converted WR Lynn Bowden at Qb. Last week Bowden was 2-15 for 17 yards thru the air and ran for 99 yards. The week before against Arkansas Bowden was 7-11 and ran for 196 yards. Everybody knows what Kentucky’s game plan with Bowden, roll him out and use his legs. Mizzou’s offense had been rolling before last weeks loss averaging 38.33 points per game with Kelly Bryant under center. Expect the Tigers to get things back on track this week and limit Bowden on the ground while putting up points against this average Kentucky defense. Take the Tigers -9.5.
Notre Dame @ Michigan 7:30 (Michigan +1, O/U 51)
The Pick: Michigan Pk
This line doesn’t make much sense to me, Notre Dame is off a bye and Michigan is off a tough loss to Penn State, you’d think the Fighting Irish would be favored by 3-4, but the game at a pick’em right now. I think Michigan was really impressive in their loss last week as they dominated in the 2nd half against Penn State and had a real shot to win. Harbaugh really needs this win and I think he can get his players ready and up for one of the bigger games in his coaching career. Harbaugh’s bound to win a big game at some point and I think it’s gonna be this one. Take Michigan.
Other plays:
Under 57 Purdue/Illinois
Under 61 Air Force/Utah State