Bankrupt the Bookie: Week 4 College Football Picks

Notre Dame @ Georgia 8:00 (Georgia -14, O/U 57.5)

The Pick: Georgia -14 (2 unit play)

So far Notre Dame has given 212 yards on the ground, 4.6 yards per carry, to New Mexico and 249 yards on a 5.3 ypc rate to Louisville. Louisville has a strong rushing attack ranking 18th in rushing yards per game and 27th in yards per carry while New Mexico ranks 58th in rushing yards per game and 59th in yards per carry. Georgia is 8th in the country averaging 286.7 yards on the ground per game and 5th in the country averaging 7.6 yards per rush. The Bulldogs have an offensive line that just bulldozes people. Notre Dame’s front is going to get absolutely bullied by  that Georgia O Line and this rushing attack could easily get to 300 plus yards on the ground. Notre Dame is also not good on 3rd down, ranking 117th in the nation in Ppponent 3rd down conversion rate. If Georgia ever gets to a 3rd down without having already scored, expect them to convert a lot of the time.  This game is also a revenge game (of sorts) for the Bulldogs as Notre Dame stole their playoff spot last season, when many people believed Georgia was the better team. Notre Dame then proceeded to get the shit kicked out of them At home under the lights in Athens I expect Georgia to come out and deliver a similar fate to the Irish. Take Georgia -14.

Michigan @ Wisconsin 12:00 (Wisconsin -3.5 O/U 44.5)

The Pick: Michigan +3.5

This line has swung close to 10 points since the preseason opening line was around Michigan -6. Sure Michigan hasn’t looked great and Wisconsin has outscored its two opponents 110-0. But, coming into the season most analysts believed Michigan was the better football team. I’m not going to let two games change my mindset. What I think has shifted the public towards Wisconsin in this game is Michigan’s showing vs Army. The Wolverines were a 20 point favorite and barely snuck out a 3 point win in Double OT. Army is a sneaky good team though, they’re triple option gives a lot of very good teams hell as defenses don’t see it often if at all. Last season Army almost beat Oklahoma. Even though Michigan’s defense should be better than Oklahoma’s, I believe the poor showing against Army has more to do with the unfamiliarity with Army’s playing style than the lack of talent on the defense. Now looking at the Badgers, their two wins came over USF who lost to Central Michigan (one of the worst programs in FBS). Both teams had a bye last week, which I believe plays in Michigan’s favor. The bye came at a perfect time for Michigan, giving them a chance to clear their heads after two rough performances. I think Michigan is overall the better team and will win this game outright so I’ll gladly take the 3.5 points in what probably will be a very close game. It also seems like every single person in the world is on Wisconsin, so that makes me feel even more confident going with Michigan. The play here is to take Michigan and the points and maybe sprinkle a little on Michigan money line.

Cal @ Ole Miss 12:00 (Ole Miss -2.5 O/U 42.5)

The Pick: Under 42.5

Coming into the season, Cal looked to have the best secondary in the country. They haven’t performed up to expectations yet but I have no doubt in this secondary’s talent.  Their strong linebacking core led by Evan Weaver limits the big rushes. Ole Miss isn’t great on the ground averaging only 3.7 yards per rush. Ole Miss QB Matt Coral hasn’t been very impressive either, passing for an average of 192.67 yards per game, and for only 93 against a good Memphis defense.  Cal’s offense isn’t very good averaging only 23.3 ppg against relatively easy competition. I expect Ole Miss to not risk attacking this Cal secondary and instead try to establish the run, which bodes well for the under as long as Cal limits the big rushing plays. The 9 am local start time for Cal will play a factor I believe and the Golden Bears offense will likely come out slow. I have zero clue who ends up winning but anytime all the stats read that the offenses suck and the defense is the strength of both teams, take the under.

Other plays I’ll be making:

Teaser Northwestern +14 and Under 42
Teaser San Diego State +10 and Under 59
Oklahoma State/Texas Over 72.5
Washington State -19
UAB -11
UL Monroe +17.5
ODU +28
Louisville +7