Philly Fantasy Life, Vol. II: Beth and Taxes
This week I experienced something I hadn’t considered when I first wrote to Philly Fan Life pitching this blog idea, and it’s a terrible feeling the likes of only Field Yates and Matthew Berry can relate to: the irony of being the one fantasy writer in your league and then losing that week.
Not only that, I lost 104 to 93 to my childhood arch rival. Within seconds of the Monday Night game ending, he had linked my column in the fantasy group chat and asked where he could comment so he could post our matchup result. Well, Crairs, you got me. With that in mind, I want to dedicate this week to three things: my 2014 league title, my 2018 league title, and your sister Beth. Someday, when you’ve won the league more than once, you’ll understand what real wins feel like.
I know I said the openings to these columns would be anecdotal, but they might just turn into cyber-bullying my fantasy football league.
Losing in fantasy and having to suffer through an Eagles loss all in one weekend is a 1-2 punch no one deserves, yet here we are. Julio Jones and Matt Ryan are nutting over their first victory against the Eagles since 2015 in what was a decidedly less important game than the two prior, the NovaCare Center is being renamed Weenie Hut General, our roster is just one long IR report, and this run-on sentence sounds terrible. But you didn’t come here to listen to my hungover complaints about life, you’re here to win your league. And who better to guide you to victory than a guy whose team is .500. Without further ado, Philly Fantasy Life Volume II:
QB: First things first: I have no time for any Wentz haters. That goes for my mom, too. Colleen, if you’re reading this, just because Nick Foles lived next to our mailman and seemed polite, doesn’t mean we should trade for him. For real though, Wentz is our guy, and while he certainly wasn’t at his best, anyone who wants to trash him is banned from reading this from now on.
Anyway, Wentz, like practically the entire roster, was off on Sunday. His accuracy was ugly, missing guys on routes that were definitely run correctly. It felt worrying for sure, but realistically this game is an exception to the rule as far as Wentz’ potential is concerned. From a fantasy perspective, any time a guy throws the ball 43 times, you’re gonna have a good time. Just ask Matt Stafford circa 2015. Sure, he wasn’t able to get it done, but in a game where key players were missing, Wentz still produced a fantasy result that at the very worst won’t lose you your game.
The evolution of Carson Wentz from 2017 to today has been consistently defined by his escapability, mobility, and creativity. Nowadays, however, that has meant being a rushing quarterback less and less. His use in these “and 1” situations and the 2 point conversion are great to see, and should have owners feeling optimistic even though the conversion was called back. Wentz is a lock to start every week unless something drastic happens. Even without his top two guys against the Lions, there is no reason to bench him.
RB: Before I even begin, the running back situation is defined by the offensive line production (or lack thereof) we just saw. Isaac Seumalo had a horrid day, literally blocking any running lanes with his body. Watching these backs take a handoff and survey the line for the faintest glimmer of hope, only to repeatedly bounce outside for a gain of 1 triggered my DeMarco Murray PTSD from those first few games he started (he had something like 8 total yards through three games — literally you or I or even Isaac fucking Seumalo could rush for more yards). All of this is to say, the O-Line has to be better or these guys aren’t going to have any opportunities to get downfield. Also, see Goedert for another all-encompassing take on the RB situation.
Sanders: When I initially wrote this, the word “indecisive” kept coming to mind in describing Miles Sanders’ performance. After rewatching the film a few times, I’m going with “trapped.” Listen: Miles Sanders is going to be a great running back. He’s got the talent. He follows his blocks, he’s quick, he can improvise. What he can’t do is phase through matter like Doctor Manhattan (Watchmen fans — does that reference work? I was like half asleep when I watched it. I assume anyone that can just teleport to Mars (Spoiler!) can also phase through matter. What I’m saying is Doctor Manhattan would be a good running back. I think). Sanders’ fantasy utility is bound to the performance of the O-Line and the amount of carries Howard is taking. He’s got a good matchup against Detroit, so I’d give him a borderline Flex start at best, but otherwise just stash him until he becomes the lead.
Howard: The worst part about this column is having to write something about Jordan Howard. I mean, what is there to say? He never got much going, matching Sanders for the team’s longest rush of the game at a whopping 5 yards. Howard was out-carried by the rook which should be concerning to any owners. I expect this trend to only continue, so if you can trade Howard for any value now, definitely make that move. If there was a week for him to explode, it’d be Sunday. This will be a ground and point game. If he doesn’t put up numbers this week, will he ever?Expect a Royce Freeman/Philip Lindsay 2018 dynamic to play out between these two, with Howard being the Freeman to Sanders’ Lindsay (albeit probably not as productive for the latter).
Sproles: I want Darren Sproles to have my babies. The short king is truly ageless, leading the team in yards per carry this season despite being like a decade older than his cohorts. Why the most elusive player in the NFL only touched the ball twice is beyond me — Sproles is too valuable to be left out to dry like that. I expect a little more usage for him against the Lions, but I really doubt that there’ll be enough there to merit starting him. At best, he’s a fringe/desperation Flex play. It’s a damn shame, too.
WR:
Jeffery: Here’s some fantasy advice you can take to the bank: don’t start Alshon Jeffery this week. Quote me on it, write it with a sharpie, make it the 11th commandment and engrave it in stone. The medical staff on this team needs to wake up because this shit is insane. There’s not much more to say other than if Agholor’s available in your league go grab him quick.
Jackson: DJax is set to miss some time as well in what is the biggest injury absence on the offensive side of the ball. That same PTSD I mentioned is acting up again, with flashbacks to how losing Mike Wallace turned us into a one-dimensional scheme easier to plan against. DJax’s absence will literally impact everyone’s production for the worst, save for Agholor and Ertz.
Agholor: HOT TAKE, I think I love Agholor more after this game. Sure, he had an absolutely brutal drop. That was Septa-bus-punctuality-level bad. Rhys Hoskins in Left Field could have made that catch. My mom Colleen could have made that catch. Hell, Isaac Seumalo could have made that catch. Ok I’ll lay off Seumalo. But Agholor had a fantastic night otherwise, and owned his mistake. However mad you are, I guarantee he’s more upset. He’s set to be the #1 guy on Sunday, and is a solid WR2 play. If you want to be really sneaky and he plays well, he’s a good sell high candidate too.
Other: Everything is fine! Totally fine! Mack Hollins and JJ Arcega-Whiteside are totally fine carrying the load of DJax and Alshon! I’ve been screaming this at myself in the mirror all week and I’m still crying a little bit in my apartment. If you even THINK about starting either of them you’re beyond saving. Find God. Or a new God. Take a shower, take a nap, and really think about what you’re doing. We have but one life, let’s not waste it starting Mack Hollins in the flex.
TE:
Ertz: Remember all that stuff I said about Wentz having too many mouths to feed, and how that’d hurt Ertz’ value? Thanks to the Philadelphia Glass-for-Bones Eagles’ medical staff, Ertz is going to see his production back at elite-tier this Sunday. He’s easily Wentz’ best receiver with Jeffery and Jackson out, and as we all learned last year, he’s Wentz’ go-to when he needs reliability. With Mack Hollins and JJ Arcega-Whiteside both getting the start, Wentz will be calling 86’s number a lot.
Goedert: So our boy Dallas is out, which seems irrelevant given his fantasy production being “limited” in the way that Shane Gillis is “funny.” However, a tweet from Ron Jaworski showed an interesting stat: Sproles, Howard, and Sanders each have a markedly higher YPC in two tight end sets than they do when a single tight end lines up. In other words, with Goedert off the field, our run game is going to suffer (or at least it will need to get creative). While not worth owning, Goedert’s status should be monitored for anyone with an Eagles running back on their roster.
D/ST: This game… was really upsetting to watch. Remember last year when Ryan Fitzpatrick took a dump on our secondary and came out to the presser in DJax’s outfit just to take a second dump on us? Matt Ryan had two huge misses in the second quarter just before the first interception where Ridley simply had our guys beat. If he hits either of those, he’s legally allowed to do the press conference in DJax’s clothes. I don’t make the rules. Stafford’s game winner against the Chargers was with a single high safety he neutralized with his eyes just before hitting Golladay on a deep post route. If you think the Eagles’ secondary is going to play any better than the Chargers did, I truly admire your optimism.
The D-Line struggled to get to Ryan early on, a surprising issue considering the injury to the Falcons’ right guard. The picks later in the game kept them in it, but two receivers gained over 100 yards in the game, and the big play potential our team allows for was on full display, with Ito Smith, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley all gashing us for long gains. There are talks of bringing in Jalen Ramsey, something we’ll hear more about on Friday. That would certainly change the viability of this defensive unit, but until then it’s all speculation.
Long story short, with all the injuries and the gaping holes in our secondary, I don’t like this unit as startable against the Lions. There are too many streamable defenses to have to rely on these guys.
K: Perfect again! Jake Elliott continues to be a reliable kicker in real life, though that hasn’t translated into being a strong fantasy play as of late. With the number of injuries, the Eagles offense probably won’t be productive enough to merit starting Elliott, but if you’re like me and just like starting him to have an Eagle on your roster, his floor is pretty high.
Hopefully next time you read this Ramsey will be an Eagle. Until then…
…Go birds,
Will