My absolute favorite thing to do is reminisce about the old days and remember the best times. If Bruce Springsteen ever did a remake of the music video for Glory Days, it’d probably just be a biopic of my life. I cannot wait to be 40 (I’m 23 now) and start every sentence with “Remember that time the Eagles won the Super Bowl…”. So, you can imagine how much I perked up when Cole Hamels’ name started floating around in the Phillies trade rumor circle. I’ll never forget Hamels complete game shutout of the Reds in the 2010 NLDS as one of my favorite performances ever (The Celtics this year are the new 2010 San Francisco Giants). Now, the homegrown ace that led us to a World Series victory in ‘08 would be back to lead a new era of Phillies baseball into the playoffs? That’s one hell of a trip down memory lane and my heart is 110% in. My few remaining brain cells that weren’t killed due to drinking and watching the Sixers from October to December, are not so sure just yet.
If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It:
This Phillies rotation is far from broken. Actually, this core has reached a confidence level I didn’t even believe they could hit. If you bring Hamels in from Arlington, which spot does he take? I’m writing this mere hours after Nick Pivetta had the quality of all quality starts in this biggest series of the year so far for the Phillies during a 3-0 win against the Braves. Here’s how Pivetta has been looking lately:
I guess you could take Velasquez out. The same Vinny Velo who’s pitching with the best command of his life right now. On name recognition alone, Cole Hamels would obviously be at the top of the rotation. Analytically, in the world of Gabe Kapler, it doesn’t quite work that way:
Cole Hamels: (0.7 WAR, 4.37 ERA, 57 SO, 21 BB)
Nick Pivetta: (1.2 WAR, 3.72 ERA, 53 SO, 11 BB)
Vince Velasquez: (0.7 WAR, 4.37 ERA, 55 SO, 16 BB)
The numbers do not differ dramatically. So, do you let the kids grow and do their thing? Or do you believe Hamels is the third pitcher in the rotation you covet to make a playoff push? My biggest concern with the Phillies this year is durability; the season is a marathon, not a sprint. The bullpen logs a ton of innings and I am still concerned that the rotation cannot produce enough quality starts to allow the ‘pen to hold up. Hamels would most likely absolve that issue and rack up innings, even at 34. Fortunately for the Phillies, the trade deadline is July 31st, not May 31st. You have two months for the back end of your rotation to prove what they’ve got!
Bang For Your Buck:
Whether you’re buying shoes, or trading for a former ace to aid your pitching staff while you’re in a playoff race, you want to get the best bang for your buck. It’s all about the value you receive for what you are paying. Hamels is in what will most likely be the last year of his contract with the Texas Rangers. There’s a 2019 vesting option in the contract but Cole would have to pitch 252IP the rest of the season to obtain it (his career high is 227IP in 2008). A less than one year rental for the guy doesn’t really cash strap the Phils. They are not exactly in a Cleveland Cavaliers “oh my God, we can’t spend another penny on Lebron’s friends” cap situation. Would it hurt financially? Probably not. But, if you’re spending the money, you hope the production matches.
Don’t Give Away the Farm:
To piggyback off the financial aspect of the trade, the more important value aspect to consider is what you have to give up. With that TV deal the Phillies signed somewhat recently, money will never be the issue. What I care about, and what matters most is what it would take player wise to bring back Hamels. This is a less than one year rental for a pitcher who is 34 years old and has catered favorably to hitters in a home run friendly Texas ballpark. There is no way that a team like the Phillies should ever give up anywhere near a legitimate prospect in a situation like this. It would be like the baseball equivalent of trading Sidney Jones for Aqib Talib. I doubt the Rangers could get much from anyone for Hamels given the scenario, but my Philly sports brain has been trained to go straight to worst case scenario. What if we end up in San Diego Padres situation? Yeah, that Enyel De Los Santos guy who is shredding apart teams for the Iron Pigs with a 1.41 ERA, the Padres gave that up for Freddy Galvis. I would have a brain aneurysm and die if that happened to the Phillies.
The day Cole threw that no hitter in Chicago was a perfect sentimental ending for a nostalgic person like me. To think I could see Hollywood Hamels back in a Phillies uniform would have me doing cartwheels down memory lane. Do I love it? Yes. Do I think it’s a smart move? For the right price (obviously). The Texas Rangers are going nowhere fast, they are pretty much the exact opposite of the Houston Astros, even in record. It is time for them to blow it up and start anew. For the Phillies, that could mean acquiring Cole Hamels at a low price for a playoff push. Hey, I need something in July to look forward to that isn’t Lebron’s free agency decision.
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